萨克森-安哈尔特州选举：AfD为何如此强势

2026年9月6日，德国萨克森-安哈尔特州将举行州议会选举 1。在选前民调中，被德国宪法保卫局部分认定为“确认的右翼极端主义”的德国选择党（AfD）以超过40%的支持率大幅领先 1。该党首席候选人乌尔里希·西格蒙德（Ulrich Siegmund）有望成为该州首位来自此类政党的州长 1。相比之下，长期执政的基民盟（CDU）支持率仅在23%至26%之间 1。现任州长、来自基民盟的斯文·舒尔策（Sven Schulze）正面临该党长期主导州政局面被终结的挑战 1。此前，基民盟政治家赖纳·哈泽洛夫（Reiner Haseloff）已担任该州州长15年，并于2026年1月卸任 1。此外，左翼党的支持率为13%，社民党（SPD）的支持率在6%至7%之间 1。

专家指出，AfD的强势归因于该州去工业化、人口老龄化、青年外流及移民问题引发的不满 1。萨克森-安哈尔特州人口约210万，2024年平均年龄为48.3岁，是德国人口最老的州 1。该州18至29岁男性约120,240人，女性约103,177人 1。2025年底外国公民约占该州人口的9%，自2015年以来无德国国籍人口数量增加了一倍多 1。1998年，极右翼DVU在该州获得12.9%的选票 1。

The Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has been partially classified as a "confirmed right-wing extremist" party by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, is leading pre-election polls with over 40% support ahead of the Saxony-Anhalt state parliamentary election on September 6, 2026 1. Its lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, is poised to potentially become the first state premier from such a political faction 1. Meanwhile, the long-ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is polling between 23% and 26%, while the Left Party holds at 13% and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) ranges from 6% to 7% 1. The current CDU state premier, Sven Schulze, faces the prospect of ending his party's long-standing dominance in the region, following the January 2026 departure of Reiner Haseloff, who served a 15-year tenure 1.

Experts attribute the AfD's formidable strength in the state, which has a population of approximately 2.1 million, to widespread dissatisfaction stemming from deindustrialization, an aging population, youth outmigration, and immigration issues 1. Demographically, Saxony-Anhalt is the oldest state in Germany, with an average age of 48.3 years recorded in 2024 1. The region has about 120,240 men and 103,177 women aged 18 to 29, and foreign citizens accounted for roughly 9% of the population by the end of 2025, with the number of non-German nationals more than doubling since 2015 1. Historically, the far-right DVU party also found success in the region, securing 12.9% of the vote in 1998 1.