澳大利亚房地产市场正在经历一轮显著的价格调整。[1]预计平均房价将下降7.8%，至明年4月触底。[1]其中，悉尼和墨尔本的跌幅预计达到10%，而中等城市的跌幅则在2%至4%之间。[1]这一轮下跌由储备银行的连续三次加息与政府改变投资者税收政策共同推动，后者也改变了市场的心理预期。[1]
在历史背景上，这并非澳大利亚房地产市场首次面临调整。[1]过去四十年内，澳大利亚共经历过七次房产市场下跌。[1]其中，2022年4月至2023年1月期间房价下跌8.1%，2017年9月至2018年4月期间房价下跌8.2%（历时19个月）。[1]相比之下，2020年新冠疫情期间的房价下跌幅度最小，仅为1.5%（三个月内）。[1]
分析师预期房价将在2027年初趋于稳定，之后可能实现温和增长，但增长率可能低于历史水平。[1]这一较缓和的复苏过程或有助于缓解长期困扰澳大利亚的住房可负担性问题。[1]
Australia's real estate market is experiencing a substantial downturn, with average property prices projected to fall 7.8 percent by April next year [1]. This correction, driven by consecutive interest rate increases from the Reserve Bank and changes to investor tax policies implemented by the government, represents a distinctive challenge in the nation's housing sector [1]. The current decline differs from seven previous market adjustments over the past four decades, with analysts predicting that prices will stabilize by early 2027, followed by modest growth that may remain below historical levels [1].
The magnitude of the current downturn varies significantly across regions [1]. Sydney and Melbourne are expected to experience 10 percent declines, while regional centers anticipate drops of 2 to 4 percent [1]. This slower recovery trajectory may help address affordability pressures, as the projected modest growth could differ from historical patterns [1].