新西兰研究人员发布研究指出，若发生8.5级地震导致库克海峡渡轮系统中断三个月，该国的货运网络将面临严重瘫痪[1]。库克海峡渡轮网络每年承运超500辆卡车和550万吨货物[1]，是连接新西兰南北两岛的关键运输枢纽。根据科学家的计算，这一规模的地震在未来50年内发生的概率约为四分之一[1]。
研究团队识别出43个相互关联的制约因素，并将其追溯到18个根本原因，涉及6个政府政策领域[1]。许多运输问题源于多年前的政策决策而非地震本身，包括港口投资不足、沿海运输能力有限和劳动力短缺等系统性缺陷[1]。沿海运输、港口和道路网络均存在产能不足和劳动力短缺问题[1]，若渡轮终端关闭三个月，空运和沿海运输均无法弥补缺口[1]。
New Zealand researchers have released a study highlighting severe vulnerabilities in the country's freight system should a major seismic event disrupt critical transportation infrastructure. The research warns that an 8.5-magnitude earthquake striking within the next 50 years—which scientists calculate has roughly a one-in-four probability of occurring [1]—could cripple the nation's supply chains if the Cook Strait ferry system were to shut down for three months [1].
The Cook Strait ferry network is vital to New Zealand's logistics operations, carrying over 500 trucks and 5.5 million tonnes of cargo annually [1]. The study identified 43 interconnected constraints affecting the freight system, which trace back to 18 underlying causes rooted in six government policy areas [1]. Researchers found that coastal shipping, ports, and road networks all suffer from insufficient capacity and labor shortages [1]. Critically, if ferry terminals were to close for three months, neither air transport nor coastal shipping alternatives could fill the resulting gap [1].
The research underscores that many of the transportation system's weaknesses stem not from the earthquake itself, but from policy decisions made over years past, including underinvestment in ports, limited coastal shipping capability, and workforce constraints that have accumulated across the sector [1].
