加雷斯·埃文斯（Gareth Evans）发表分析文章指出，全球核武器控制前景黯淡，美、俄、中等核武国家正致力于现代化或扩充核武库，多项重要军控条约已失效或濒临失效，核武器使用禁忌面临弱化风险 1。目前，全球九个核武装国家共拥有超过12,200枚核弹头，总破坏力超过145,000颗广岛原子弹 1。其中，约9,000枚核弹头处于军事现役或部署状态 1。美国和俄罗斯持有全球90%的核武库，约2,000枚美俄武器处于高度戒备状态，可在4至8分钟决策窗口内发射 1。与此同时，中国核武库在短短几年内翻倍至近600枚，并拥有新型陆基和海基投送系统 1。
在军控条约方面，New START（2010年《新削减战略武器条约》）将于2026年2月到期，届时美俄将50多年来首次不受任何核力量限制 1。文章强调，国际法在约束核武器威胁与使用方面仍具关键作用，并呼吁重视国际法在防止核冲突中的持续效用 1。《禁止核武器条约》于2017年由122个联合国成员国通过，2021年生效 1。国际法院1996年咨询意见裁定：“威胁或使用核武器一般违反适用于武装冲突的国际法规则，特别是人道主义法的原则和规则。” 1 此外，特朗普在2026年1月《纽约时报》采访中表示：“我不需要国际法”，对其总统权力的唯一约束是“我自己的道德，我自己的思想” 1。
Nine nuclear-armed nations currently possess over 12,200 nuclear warheads, with a combined destructive power equivalent to more than 145,000 Hiroshima bombs 1. Approximately 9,000 of these warheads remain in active military service or deployed status 1. The United States and Russia hold 90% of the global nuclear arsenal, with roughly 2,000 weapons from both countries kept on high alert and capable of being launched within a decision window of just four to eight minutes 1. Meanwhile, China's nuclear arsenal has doubled in just a few years to nearly 600 warheads, accompanied by new land-based and sea-based delivery systems 1. The prospects for global arms control are grim, as the New START treaty, signed in 2010, is set to expire in February 2026, meaning the U.S. and Russia will be free from any nuclear force limitations for the first time in over 50 years 1.
Despite these threats, international law continues to play a crucial role in constraining the threat and use of nuclear weapons 1. In a 1996 advisory opinion, the International Court of Justice ruled that "the threat or use of nuclear weapons would generally be contrary to the rules of international law applicable in armed conflict, and in particular the principles and rules of humanitarian law" 1. Furthermore, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons was adopted by 122 United Nations member states in 2017 and entered into force in 2021 1. However, political challenges to international legal frameworks persist, as Donald Trump stated in a January 2026 interview with The New York Times, "I don't need international law," asserting that the only constraint on his presidential power is "my own moral, my own mind" 1.
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