一项由Simon K. Allen、Ashim Sattar、Owen King、Atanu Bhattacharya、Guoqing Zhang、Tandong Yao与Tobias Bolch等人开展的研究，模拟评估了喜马拉雅跨境流域Poiqu河盆地冰川湖溃决洪水（GLOF）的最坏情景 1。该研究区域涉及中国西藏聂拉木县至中尼边境，重点关注西藏最危险的冰川湖之二Galongco和Jialongco，以及未来可能形成的新湖 1。模拟结果显示，由大型冰崩或岩崩触发的GLOF峰值流量远超此前估计，在最坏情景下未来湖的峰值流量可达359,628立方米/秒 1。同时，Galongco在最坏情景下的峰值流量为Jialongco的5倍以上 1。
模拟表明下游地区的预警时间极短，其中聂拉木的预警时间仅为5至11分钟，中尼边境地区约30分钟 1。研究指出，Jialongco近期降低水位的工程措施对极端溃决下游的影响甚微 1。预计到2070至2100年，未来湖将达到Jialongco当前的规模 1。研究提及1981年Cirenmaco溃决曾造成约200人死亡及400万美元损失，并呼吁采取结合早期预警、土地利用分区和地方应急响应能力建设的综合灾害风险管理策略 1。
A recent study has simulated worst-case glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) scenarios in the transboundary Poiqu River basin of the Himalayas, focusing on the highly dangerous Galongco and Jialongco lakes, as well as a potential future lake 1. The research, conducted by Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Atanu Bhattacharya, Guoqing Zhang, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch, reveals that peak discharge triggered by large ice or rock avalanches significantly exceeds previous estimates 1. In the most extreme scenario involving the future lake, the peak GLOF discharge could reach up to 359,628 cubic meters per second 1. Consequently, the warning time for downstream areas is critically short, estimated at merely 5 to 11 minutes for Nyalam County in Tibet and approximately 30 minutes for the China-Nepal border 1.
The study highlights that Galongco and Jialongco are among the most dangerous glacial lakes in Tibet, with the worst-case peak discharge for Galongco being more than five times that of Jialongco 1. Furthermore, recent engineering measures designed to lower the water level of Jialongco have shown minimal impact on mitigating the downstream effects of an extreme outburst 1. The future lake is projected to reach the current size of Jialongco between 2070 and 2100 1. The severe risks are underscored by historical precedents, such as the 1981 Cirenmaco outburst, which resulted in approximately 200 fatalities and caused damages amounting to 4 million US dollars 1. In light of these findings, the researchers urge the implementation of comprehensive disaster risk management strategies that integrate early warning systems, land-use zoning, and the enhancement of local emergency response capabilities 1.
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