萨克森-安哈尔特州选举在即：德国选择党民调大幅领先

2026年9月6日，德国萨克森-安哈尔特州将举行州议会选举 1。被德国国内情报机构部分认定为“确认的右翼极端主义”的德国选择党（AfD）在所有民调中以超过40%的支持率大幅领先 1。相比之下，长期执政的基民盟（CDU）支持率仅在23%至26%之间，左翼党和社民党的支持率分别为13%和6%至7% 1。AfD首席候选人Ulrich Siegmund有望成为战后德国首位来自此类政党的州长 1。

萨克森-安哈尔特州人口约210万，2024年平均年龄达48.3岁，是德国人口最老的州 1。该州18至29岁男性约120,240人，女性约103,177人；截至2025年底，外国公民约占该州人口的9% 1。回顾该州政治历史，极右翼的德国人民联盟（DVU）曾在1998年获得12.9%的选票并进入州议会 1。

在权力交接方面，CDU政治家Reiner Haseloff在担任该州州长15年后，已于2026年1月卸任 1。其继任者Sven Schulze将迎战AfD，面临终结基民盟长期主导州政局面的挑战 1。针对当前选情，政治学家Benjamin Höhne指出，AfD若掌权将寻求重塑宪法秩序 1。

The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party partially classified as "proven right-wing extremist" by Germany's domestic intelligence agency, is leading all polls with over 40% support ahead of the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament election on September 6, 2026 1. Its lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, is expected to potentially become the first state minister-president in post-war Germany from such a political party 1. In contrast, the long-ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is polling between 23% and 26% 1. Reiner Haseloff, who served as the CDU state minister-president for 15 years, stepped down in January 2026, leaving his successor Sven Schulze to challenge the AfD and face the potential end of the CDU's long-standing political dominance in the region 1. Other parties in the race include the Left Party at 13% and the Social Democratic Party between 6% and 7% 1.

Saxony-Anhalt has a population of approximately 2.1 million and recorded the oldest average age in Germany at 48.3 years in 2024 1. The state's demographic profile includes about 120,240 men and 103,177 women aged 18 to 29, with foreign citizens estimated to comprise roughly 9% of the population by the end of 2025 1. The region has a history of far-right electoral success, notably when the German People's Union (DVU) secured 12.9% of the vote to enter the state parliament in 1998 1. Regarding the potential impact of the AfD's surge, political scientist Benjamin Höhne stated that if the party takes power, it will seek to reshape the constitutional order 1.