来自俄勒冈州、加州和内华达州的多名民主党参议员已致函商品期货交易委员会（CFTC），要求对Polymarket和Kalshi等预测市场平台进行整顿，限制用户在这些平台上对野火事件进行赌博[1]。参议员们包括俄勒冈州的杰夫·默克利、加州的亚当·希夫和亚历克斯·帕迪利，以及内华达州的凯瑟琳·科尔特斯·马斯托[1]。
参议员们在信函中警示，允许用户下注野火事件的做法可能激励个人实施纵火以确保赌注成功[1]。圣克拉拉大学伦理中心主任安·斯基特表示担忧，指出"有人可能下注，然后被激励去真正点燃火灾"[1]。在洛杉矶帕利萨德斯和伊顿火灾期间，Polymarket平台上的野火赌注总额超过120万美元[1]。CFTC主席已被要求在2025年8月14日之前对参议员提出的一系列问题进行回应[1]。
华盛顿州和俄勒冈州大火已烧毁超过200万英亩土地[1]。Polymarket曾因未获许可在美国运营而于2022年被罚款140万美元[1]，CFTC随后对其进行了至少三次调查[1]。
Democratic senators from six states have written to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) demanding restrictions on prediction market platforms that allow users to bet on wildfires, citing concerns that such gambling could incentivize arson [1]. The letter, addressed to the CFTC chair with a response deadline of August 14, 2025, was signed by senators including Jeff Merkley of Oregon, Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla of California, and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada [1].
The lawmakers' concerns center on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where wildfire wagers have reached significant volumes during recent fire seasons [1]. During the Los Angeles Palisades and Eaton fires, betting activity on Polymarket alone exceeded $1.2 million [1]. An ethics researcher at Santa Clara University underscored the danger, stating that "someone could place a bet and then be incentivized to actually light a fire" [1]. The CFTC has previously scrutinized Polymarket, conducting at least three investigations into the platform, and fined it $1.4 million in 2022 for operating in the United States without authorization [1]. Recent wildfires in Washington and Oregon have burned more than two million acres [1].