澳大利亚维多利亚州将于11月28日举行州议会选举，这场选战成为联邦层面的重要风向标[1]。工党总理卡罗尔正试图通过宣布建立皇家委员会调查建筑业腐败并加强反腐委员会权力等举措，挽救党派颓势并与前任政府划清界限[1]。自由党反对派领袖威尔逊则争取赢得执政权，而单一民族党领导人汉森的支持率上升，三方竞争格局日趋激烈[1]。
根据最新民调，工党面临严峻形势[1]。Redbridge民调显示，联盟得票率达30%，领先工党7个百分点；单一民族党22%、绿党14%[1]。在两党优先制投票中，联盟以57%对工党43%的优势领先[1]。领导力方面，卡罗尔的净评分为负15，威尔逊为正13，汉森为负17[1]。工党需在57个选区中赢得16席才能获得多数席位[1]。反腐委员会的最新报告于周三发布，涉及前政府与消防员工会之间的秘密协议，进一步加重了工党的政治压力[1]。
Victoria will hold a state election on November 28, 2024, with control of the state parliament at stake [1]. Labor Premier Ben Carroll is attempting to revive the party's fortunes by distancing itself from previous administrations, announcing the establishment of a royal commission to investigate corruption in the construction industry and expanding the powers of the anti-corruption commission [1]. The Liberal Party opposition leader Jess Wilson is seeking to secure governing power, while Pauline Hanson's One Nation party has seen its support rise, creating a three-way competitive contest [1].
Recent polling reveals a tightening race among the major contenders. A Redbridge poll shows the Coalition at 30 percent, Labor at 23 percent, One Nation at 22 percent, and the Greens at 14 percent, with two-party preferred voting favoring the Coalition 57 percent to Labor's 43 percent [1]. Labor needs to win 16 seats across 57 contested electorates to secure a majority [1]. Leadership perceptions also reflect the fluid political environment, with Carroll's net favorability rating at minus 15, Wilson's at plus 13, and Hanson's at minus 17 [1]. An anti-corruption commission report released earlier in the week detailed confidential agreements between the previous Andrews government and firefighters' unions, further complicating the narrative for the incumbent party [1].
