澳大利亚的一项研究首次用数据证实，大型美式皮卡和SUV等车辆的增加与行人死亡率上升存在直接关联。该研究分析了2012年至2025年间维多利亚州10376起行人碰撞事故的数据，发现车重与车高这两个关键因素显著影响行人的致命风险[1]。具体来看，每增加100公斤车重，行人致命风险上升6%；每增加10厘米车高，致命风险增加11%[1]。大型皮卡和美式皮卡车的行人致命风险比普通轿车高约60%[1]。
澳大利亚的车型结构变化为这一问题提供了背景。自2005年以来，轻型车辆平均占地面积增长约7%，而皮卡和美式卡车的增长接近18%[1]。在新车销售中，SUV的比例从2012年的约四分之一增至2023年的57%[1]。同期，维多利亚州客运车辆的平均重量从1440公斤增至1570公斤，增加了约130公斤（9%）[1]。与此相应，自2021年以来澳大利亚行人死亡率上升，而驾驶员和乘客死亡率保持稳定[1]。
根据研究的模型预测，若涉事车辆规模全部减小至现今普通轿车的水平，约可减少9%的行人死亡[1]。
Australian research has for the first time established a direct link between large American-style pickup trucks and SUVs and rising pedestrian fatalities in the country.[1] An analysis of 10,376 pedestrian collision incidents in Victoria between 2012 and 2025 found that each additional 100 kilograms of vehicle weight correlates with a 6 percent increase in fatal risk to pedestrians, while every 10 centimeters of additional vehicle height associates with an 11 percent increase in fatal risk.[1] Pickup trucks and American-style trucks carry approximately 60 percent higher pedestrian fatality risk compared to standard sedans.[1]
The research reveals a troubling shift in Australian vehicle preferences over the past decade. The average footprint of light vehicles in Australia has grown by approximately 7 percent since 2005, while pickups and American trucks have increased by nearly 18 percent.[1] In 2012, SUVs represented approximately one quarter of new car sales in Australia; by 2023, this figure had risen to 57 percent.[1] During the same period, the average weight of passenger vehicles involved in pedestrian collisions in Victoria increased from 1,440 kilograms in 2012 to 1,570 kilograms in 2024—an increase of approximately 130 kilograms or 9 percent.[1] Meanwhile, pedestrian fatality rates in Australia have risen since 2021, while driver and passenger fatality rates have remained stable.[1]
The research offers a potential pathway to reducing road deaths. Mathematical modeling suggests that if all vehicles involved in fatal pedestrian collisions were scaled down to the size of typical sedans today, approximately 9 percent of pedestrian deaths could be prevented.[1]
