澳大利亚储备银行将于下周二公布利率决定，市场普遍预期该行将维持现行4.35%的现金利率水平不变[1]。尽管四大银行都预测央行短期内按兵不动，但专家警告借款人不应对降息抱有期待[1]。
央行在做出决定时将重点审视三项关键经济数据[1]。6月份头条通胀率从4%回落至3.8%，修剪平均通胀保持在3.6%[1]；同期失业率为4.4%，较4月份的4.5%略有下降[1]；家庭支出环比增长0.8%[1]。央行行长Michele Bullock已明确表态不排除进一步加息的可能性，理由是当前通胀仍然高于2%-3%的目标区间[1]。四大银行的预测显示，澳洲首次降息可能要等到明年才会实现[1]。
理财顾问Sally Tindall建议有抵押贷款的借款人做好准备，表示"如果你有抵押贷款，不要指望（利率会下降）。花周末时间检查你的财务状况，确保你能承受另一次加息"[1]。
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision next Tuesday, with expectations that it will maintain the current cash rate at 4.35%[1]. However, despite widespread predictions from the country's four major banks that the central bank will hold steady, experts caution that borrowers should remain prepared for the possibility of further rate increases[1].
The RBA's decision will hinge on three critical economic indicators[1]. Headline inflation declined to 3.8% in June from 4%, while trimmed mean inflation remained at 3.6%[1]. The unemployment rate stood at 4.4% in June, slightly below the April 2026 peak of 4.5%[1]. Household spending rose 0.8% on a monthly basis in the same period[1].
RBA Governor Michele Bullock has refused to rule out the possibility of additional rate increases, citing inflation that continues to exceed the central bank's 2–3% target band[1]. The major banks do not expect the first rate cut until next year[1]. Financial commentator Sally Tindall warned borrowers to prepare for potential further tightening: "If you have a mortgage, don't bank on it. Spend the weekend checking your finances to make sure you can handle another rate rise"[1].