作为全球最大食糖消费国，印度正面临严重的食糖供应紧张，政府近十年来首次宣布进口100万吨食糖，以应对节日旺季需求1。受甘蔗减产、厄尔尼诺现象导致降雨减少、市场囤积以及全球供应收紧等多重因素影响，印度国内糖价在过去两个月内上涨近40%1。具体来看，5至6月期间糖价约为每公斤40至45卢比，而到了8月，多个市场的糖价已涨至每公斤58至60卢比以上1。
当前榨季（2025年10月至2026年9月）的食糖产量预期已被下调至3060万吨，较此前预估的3430万吨降低了11%1。此外，约300万吨糖将被分流用于乙醇生产1。在全球市场上，本季食糖产量预计将降至1.849亿吨，低于上一季的1.861亿吨1。8月中旬，伦敦白糖期货触及每吨541美元，创下2025年4月以来的最高纪录1。上一季，印度的食糖消费量已超过2800万吨1。
除了宣布进口和提前开榨外，政府还将贸易商和批发商的食糖库存上限限制在400吨，为期三个月1。同时，自9月1日起的三个月内，经济特区糖厂可免税向国内市场销售食糖1。在出口方面，印度政府在本榨季最初批准出口150万吨，2月追加50万吨，但在5月13日停止出口前，实际已运出近80万吨1。针对此次短缺，专家批评政府此前对产量存在高估，且允许出口，导致供应短缺的问题未能被及时发现1。
India, the world's largest consumer of sugar, is facing a severe supply crunch as sugar prices have surged by nearly 40% over the past two months 1. Driven by reduced sugarcane yields, lower rainfall caused by El Niño, hoarding, and tightening global supplies, retail prices jumped from 40-45 rupees per kilogram in May and June to over 58-60 rupees in multiple markets by August 1. To meet the soaring demand during the upcoming festive season, the Indian government has announced the import of 1 million tons of sugar, marking its first such move in nearly a decade 1.
The domestic supply is further constrained by a downward revision in the production forecast for the current crushing season, which runs from October 2025 to September 2026 1. Output is now expected to reach 30.6 million tons, an 11% drop from the previous estimate of 34.3 million tons 1. Additionally, approximately 3 million tons of sugar will be diverted for ethanol production, exacerbating the shortage 1. This comes after India consumed over 28 million tons of sugar last season 1. Experts have criticized the government for overestimating production and permitting exports, which delayed the realization of the shortage 1. During the current season, the government initially approved 1.5 million tons of exports, added another 500,000 tons in February, and halted all exports on May 13 after nearly 800,000 tons had already been shipped 1.
To mitigate the crisis, the government has implemented several measures, including capping trader and wholesaler inventory limits at 400 tons for a three-month period and advancing the start of the crushing season 1. Furthermore, sugar mills in special economic zones will be allowed to sell sugar to the domestic market tax-free for three months starting September 1 1. The domestic squeeze is compounded by a broader global shortfall, with worldwide sugar production projected to fall to 184.9 million tons this season from 186.1 million tons in the previous season 1. Reflecting this tight global market, London white sugar futures hit $541 per ton in mid-August, reaching their highest level since April 2025 1.
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