马来西亚榴莲产业正面临气候变化与市场波动的双重夹击。尽管中国市场的强劲需求曾推动该产业快速扩张，但极端天气现象正在侵蚀种植户的利润空间。半岛马来西亚1969年至2025年间平均气温每十年上升0.24摄氏度 [1]，洪水、降雨失调和高温等极端天气导致授粉失败、病虫害增加，进而威胁榴莲品质 [1]。
产业规模的增长无法抵消成本压力的上升。马来西亚榴莲种植面积2024年为92,100公顷，相比2016年增长近40% [1]；产量同期从约300,000吨增至568,800吨，增长近90% [1]。中国作为最大进口国，2025年进口新鲜榴莲187万吨，价值75亿美元，占全球出口约95% [1]，但这一巨大市场的购买力并未为种植户带来稳定回报。A级猫山王榴莲价格从2024年峰值跌至2025年7月的每公斤8.6美元，仅为去年同期的一半 [1]。
种植户正承受多重成本冲击。伊朗战争导致燃料和肥料价格上升 [1]，杀虫剂价格较三年前上涨约30% [1]。种植户Stephen Chow表示："能做到收支平衡就已经很好了。最有可能的是今年会亏损。" [1]
Malaysia's durian growers are caught between surging international demand and mounting climate pressures that are eroding their profits. The Southeast Asian nation has dramatically expanded its durian production to meet China's appetite, with cultivated area reaching 92,100 hectares in 2024—a nearly 40% increase from 2016—and annual output climbing to 568,800 tons, up roughly 90% over the same period [1]. China's import demand remains robust, with the country purchasing 1.87 million tons of fresh durian valued at $7.5 billion in 2025, accounting for approximately 95% of global exports [1]. Yet this growth is being undermined by environmental pressures that are making farming increasingly difficult.
Extreme weather patterns including flooding, erratic rainfall, and high temperatures have disrupted pollination, intensified pest and disease outbreaks, and driven up production costs across Malaysian plantations [1]. The strain is evident in market prices: premium Musang King durian has fallen to $8.60 per kilogram by July 2025, half the price from a year earlier [1]. Contributing to the financial squeeze, growers face rising input expenses stemming from global factors—pesticide costs have climbed approximately 30% over three years, while fuel and fertilizer prices have surged due to tensions in Iran [1]. The temperature in Peninsular Malaysia has risen at an average rate of 0.24 degrees Celsius per decade between 1969 and 2025 [1].
For individual producers, the outlook is bleak. Farmer Stephen Chow stated: "Breaking even would already be very good. Most likely, we will face losses this year" [1]. Despite these headwinds, growers are adapting by deploying technological monitoring systems and implementing improved water resource management to mitigate the effects of extreme weather [1].