澳大利亚面临禽流感威胁，但现有风险评估存在重大漏洞。联邦政府分析表明，约五分之一的澳大利亚鸟类和哺乳动物物种面临高、极高或极端风险[1]。然而，这些评估忽视了一个关键因素：濒危物种因种群数量下降而丧失免疫基因多样性，使其对H5N1病毒的抵抗力减弱[1]。
多个案例说明这一问题的严重性。橙腹鹦鹉在野生环境中仅剩86只，其基因多样性在过去一个世纪中大幅下降[1]。塔斯马尼亚魔鬼因5000年前的种群瓶颈而具有极低的免疫基因多样性[1]，而魔鬼面部肿瘤病更加剧了这一困境——该病导致塔斯马尼亚本地种群下降95%，全州估计下降80%，自1990年代出现以来仍在侵蚀免疫基因多样性[1]。
为应对这一挑战，研究人员正在采取行动。威胁物种倡议已为125多个濒危物种收集了数据[1]，研究人员已在塔斯马尼亚魔鬼中开展免疫引导的保护工作，通过育种决策改善免疫系统[1]。专家呼吁建立国家免疫风险地图，利用现有基因组数据对高危物种进行预防性保护[1]。
Federal analysis indicates that approximately one-fifth of Australia's bird and mammal species face high, very high, or extreme risk from avian influenza [1]. However, current risk assessments overlook a critical factor: the genetic capacity of endangered species to resist the virus. Research reveals that threatened populations have lost immune gene diversity as their numbers have declined, leaving them particularly vulnerable to H5N1 [1].
The orange-bellied parrot exemplifies this vulnerability, with only 86 individuals remaining in the wild and genetic diversity having declined substantially over the past century [1]. Similarly, the Tasmanian devil possesses extremely low immune gene diversity stemming from a population bottleneck occurring 5,000 years ago [1]. This vulnerability has been further eroded by devil facial tumor disease, which has reduced the local population by 95 percent since the disease emerged in the 1990s and continues to deplete immune genetic variation [1]. Statewide, Tasmanian devil populations have declined by an estimated 80 percent [1].
Researchers have already begun implementing immune-guided conservation strategies for Tasmanian devils, using breeding decisions to strengthen their immune systems [1]. The Threatened Species Initiative has collected genetic data for more than 125 endangered species [1]. Experts are calling for the creation of a national immune risk map that would leverage existing genomic data to provide preventative protection for high-risk species before avian influenza spreads further among vulnerable wildlife populations [1].
