澳大利亚最新民调显示一国党与联盟党支持率互有起伏，工党保持领先

本周发布的三项澳大利亚联邦民调结果显示，一国党（One Nation）与联盟党（Coalition）的支持率互有起伏，而工党在两党偏好投票中继续保持领先 1。在8月18日至24日进行、样本量为1510人的YouGov民调中，工党初选得票率为29%，一国党为26%，联盟党为21%，绿党为12%，独立候选人占5%，其他党派占7% 1。根据受访者偏好，工党在两党偏好中以56%对44%领先一国党，以53%对47%领先联盟党 1。在8月18日至20日进行、样本量为1562人的DemosAU民调中，工党支持率为26%，联盟党为25%，一国党为24%，绿党为12%，其他党派为13% 1。而在8月17日至23日进行、样本量为1508人的Morgan民调中，工党与一国党均获得27%的支持率，联盟党为21%，绿党为14%，其他党派为11% 1。

在领导人支持度方面，YouGov民调显示安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯（Anthony Albanese）的净支持率为-24（59%不满意，35%满意），安格斯·泰勒（Angus Taylor）的净支持率为-16（49%不满意，33%满意） 1。在首选总理的对比中，阿尔巴尼斯以44%对37%领先泰勒，并以52%对37%领先汉森（Hanson） 1。此外，51%的受访者支持一国党提出的禁止原籍澳大利亚的外国战斗人员和恐怖分子同情者回国的提议，反对比例为29% 1。

在席位预测方面，DemosAU预测在150个众议院席位中，工党将获得61至73席，联盟党获得32至50席，一国党获得26至39席，绿党获得0至5席，其他党派获得5至10席 1。在州级层面，8月17日至18日进行、样本量为1000人的塔斯马尼亚州EMRS民调显示，自由党支持率为26%，工党为23%，一国党为21%，绿党为16%，独立候选人占14%，其他占1% 1。该民调结果显示，自由党与一国党联合可能赢得多数席位 1。另外，新西兰大选定于11月7日举行 1。

Recent federal polls conducted in mid-to-late August reveal fluctuating support for One Nation and the Coalition, while the Labor Party maintains a lead in two-party preferred voting 1. A YouGov survey of 1,510 respondents, carried out between August 18 and 24, places the primary vote at 29% for Labor, 26% for One Nation, 21% for the Coalition, 12% for the Greens, 5% for independents, and 7% for others 1. Under respondent preferences, Labor leads One Nation 56% to 44% and the Coalition 53% to 47% 1. A Morgan poll of 1,508 participants from August 17 to 23 shows Labor and One Nation tied at 27%, with the Coalition at 21%, the Greens at 14%, and others at 11% 1. Additionally, a DemosAU survey of 1,562 people conducted from August 18 to 20 records Labor at 26%, the Coalition at 25%, One Nation at 24%, the Greens at 12%, and others at 13% 1. Based on the DemosAU data, seat projections for the 150 House seats estimate Labor between 61 and 73, the Coalition between 32 and 50, One Nation between 26 and 39, the Greens between 0 and 5, and others between 5 and 10 1.

Leadership evaluations and policy proposals were also measured in the YouGov poll 1. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of -24, with 59% of respondents dissatisfied and 35% satisfied, whereas Angus Taylor's net approval stood at -16, with 49% dissatisfied and 33% satisfied 1. When selecting a preferred prime minister, 44% of respondents chose Albanese over Taylor's 37%, and 52% favored Albanese over Pauline Hanson's 37% 1. Regarding policy, 51% of those surveyed supported One Nation's proposal to ban Australian-born foreign fighters and terrorist sympathizers from returning to the country, compared to 29% who opposed the measure 1.

At the state level, a Tasmanian EMRS poll of 1,000 respondents conducted on August 17 and 18 indicates the Liberals leading with 26%, followed by Labor at 23%, One Nation at 21%, the Greens at 16%, independents at 14%, and others at 1% 1. The poll indicates that a combined Liberal and One Nation coalition could potentially win a majority of seats 1. Meanwhile, the New Zealand election is scheduled for November 7 1.