硅谷科技领导人对人工智能前景作出极其乐观的预测，但这些愿景正面临尖锐批评。Dario Amodei预言"几年内半数入门级工作将被AI消灭"，同时声称"癌症死亡率和发病率可降低95%"[1]；Elon Musk宣称AI将使工作"可选"[1]。然而批评者指出，这种过度乐观陷入了"技术至上主义"的意识形态，忽视了AI部署带来的深层社会风险[1]。
经济学家Branko Milanović提出了一个令人担忧的社会分层模型[1]。根据其分析，不受限制的AI部署将创造四个阶层的社会结构：底层为被AI取代的"过剩人口"，中层为低薪服务业工人，高层为精英专业人士，顶层为掌握技术的新贵族[1]。当"过剩人口"达到劳动力的15%-20%时，可能演变为政治炸弹[1]。目前，收入和资本所有权均处顶10%的"homoploutic"阶层在美国人口中仅占约3%[1]。
硅谷当前的AI愿景实际上指向了一个截然不同的未来——由经济收益分配不均引发的持久不平等与政治不稳定社会，而非普遍繁荣[1]。
Silicon Valley technology leaders have made sweeping predictions about artificial intelligence's potential to solve major societal challenges, yet economists warn these optimistic visions could deepen social inequality. Dario Amodei has predicted that "half of entry-level jobs will be eliminated by AI within years," while simultaneously forecasting a "95% reduction in cancer mortality and morbidity rates" [1]. Elon Musk has similarly claimed that AI will make work "optional" [1]. However, economist Branko Milanović argues that unrestricted AI deployment will create a starkly stratified society rather than universal prosperity [1].
According to Milanović's model, AI-driven disruption would produce four distinct social layers [1]. The bottom tier would consist of "surplus population" displaced by automation, the next level would comprise low-wage service workers, followed by a middle class of elite professionals, and finally a top tier of technological elites who control these systems [1]. When the displaced "surplus population" reaches 15–20% of the total workforce, it could become a "political time bomb," creating sustained inequality and political instability [1]. The wealthiest layer, characterized as "homoploutoi"—those ranking in the top 10% for both income and capital ownership—currently comprises approximately 3% of the American population [1]. Rather than delivering widespread prosperity, Silicon Valley's AI vision risks producing "persistent inequality and political instability driven by unequal distribution of economic gains" [1].