联合国世界气象组织发布的最新气候预测显示，未来五年地球极有可能反复突破《巴黎协定》设定的1.5摄氏度安全升温阈值，并打破2024年创下的最热年份纪录 1。报告指出，2026至2030年间全球平均气温有75%的概率比工业化前水平高出超过1.5摄氏度，且有91%的概率在这五年中至少有一年突破该阈值 1。同时，有86%的概率未来五年中至少一年会打破2024年的高温纪录，2027年可能打破2024年的高温纪录 1。世界气象组织预测，2026至2030年每年的气温将比19世纪末高出1.3至1.9摄氏度 1。若未来五年平均升温超过1.5摄氏度，将意味着十年内升温0.25摄氏度，这一速率快于此前每十年约0.2摄氏度的速率 1。
北极地区的升温速度预计约为全球平均水平的3.5倍 1。北极冬季在2020至2025年的平均气温已比1991至2020年的平均值高出1.2摄氏度，世界气象组织预测未来五个北极冬季的平均气温将比该基准值高出2.8摄氏度 1。亚马逊流域将面临更为严重的干旱和野火风险，强厄尔尼诺现象也可能持续至2028年 1。科学家警告，气温每升高0.1摄氏度都会带来更严重的极端天气、生态破坏和人类生命损失 1。联合国气候负责人西蒙·斯蒂尔表示，全球变暖的速度仍然超过全球的遏制努力 1。该预测报告基于来自各国的13个不同气候模型，并经过约200次计算机模拟运行得出 1。
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) of the United Nations has released its latest climate forecast in Washington, warning that the Earth is highly likely to repeatedly breach the 1.5 degrees Celsius safety threshold set by the Paris Agreement over the next five years 1. Between 2026 and 2030, there is a 75% probability that the global average temperature will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, and a 91% chance that at least one year within this period will surpass the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold 1. Furthermore, there is an 86% probability that at least one year in the next five years will break the record for the hottest year currently held by 2024, with 2027 specifically identified as a potential record-breaker 1. The WMO predicts that annual temperatures from 2026 to 2030 will be 1.3 to 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than those at the end of the 19th century 1. If the average warming over the next five years exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius, it would mean a temperature increase of 0.25 degrees Celsius within a decade, accelerating faster than the previous rate of approximately 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade 1.
Regional impacts are expected to be severe, with the Arctic warming at a rate approximately 3.5 times the global average 1. While the average Arctic winter temperature from 2020 to 2025 was 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than the 1991-2020 average, the WMO forecasts that the average temperature for the next five Arctic winters will be 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 baseline 1. Additionally, the Amazon basin faces heightened risks of severe droughts and wildfires, and a strong El Niño phenomenon could persist until 2028 1. The forecast is based on approximately 200 computer simulation runs utilizing 13 different climate models from various countries 1. Highlighting the urgency, UN climate chief Simon Stiell stated that the pace of global warming still outstrips global efforts to curb it 1. Scientists also warn that every 0.1 degrees Celsius increase will lead to more severe extreme weather, ecological destruction, and loss of human life 1.
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