澳大利亚房地产市场首次出现盈利性下滑迹象。2026年上半年，房屋转售获利比例从12个月前的97.5%下降至97.4%[1]，虽然跌幅仅0.1个百分点，但反映出市场可能正在放缓。与此同时，过去六个月至7月的短期数据显示更明显的下行压力，获利房屋比例从前六个月至1月的94.9%下跌至94.4%[1]。
市场分化现象日益凸显。全国房屋中位转售利润达到创纪录的458,000澳元，公寓为237,000澳元[1]。但这一整体强劲表现掩盖了地区差异的扩大——悉尼中位房屋卖方利润高达739,500澳元，为全国最高[1]，珀斯99.6%的房屋转售获利、布里斯班99.5%的公寓转售获利率亦保持高位[1]。与之相反，墨尔本超过四分之一的公寓卖家正在亏本出售[1]。
市场供需失衡加剧了市场冷却的信号。7月全国房屋价值下跌0.7%[1]，过去四周至7月26日的房屋挂牌量较五年平均水平低1.1%[1]。首都城市拍卖清盘率自5月底以来保持在50%以下[1]。Domain首席住宅经济学家Nicola Powell指出，"转售盈利性是滞后指标，往往跟随房价变化"[1]，这意味着当前的利润率下滑可能预示着更广泛的市场调整即将到来。
Australia's property market is displaying signs of strain despite continued strong pricing, with profitability metrics ticking downward for the first time in recent memory.[1] In the first half of 2026, the proportion of house resales generating profits declined marginally to 97.4% from 97.5% twelve months earlier, a shift that signals potential market softening ahead.[1] Over the most recent six-month period through July, the figure fell further to 94.4% compared with 94.9% in the preceding half-year, indicating accelerating pressure on seller returns.[1] National median resale profits on houses reached a record 458,000 Australian dollars, while apartments achieved 237,000 Australian dollars.[1]
However, the national picture masks significant geographic divergence. Sydney's median house sellers captured the nation's highest profits at 739,500 Australian dollars, while Perth and Brisbane sustained exceptional profitability rates of 99.6% and 99.5% respectively on house and apartment sales.[1] By contrast, Melbourne faces deteriorating conditions, with more than one quarter of apartment sellers recording losses.[1] Overall, house values nationwide fell 0.7% in July, and capital city auction clearance rates have remained below 50% since late May, compounding headwinds for the market.[1] Listing volumes over the four weeks to July 26 remained 1.1% below the five-year average, suggesting constrained supply across regions.[1] According to Domain's chief residential economist Nicola Powell, resale profitability represents a lagging indicator that typically follows price movements rather than predicting them.[1]