澳大利亚房地产市场正陷入买家观望的怪圈。拍卖平均出价者数量已跌至两人以下,相比去年大部分时间的三人明显下降[1]。看房平均人数同样从三至四人降至约两人[1]。随着国民银行(NAB)预测澳大利亚首都城市房价今年将下跌5%,较早前2%的预期翻番,墨尔本和悉尼的跌幅预计约为10%[1],购房者因担心价格继续走低而推迟购买决策,形成了预期下降导致观望、观望加剧下降的恶性循环。
市场成交低迷由此显现。拍卖清算率长期处于60%以下的水平,低于被视为买卖市场均衡的60%基准[1]。房产顾问Cate Bakos指出,当前买家条件实际上已大幅改善,"买家条件好很多,他们能打折购买,能有他们的条件……他们太胆小了。他们坐以待毙,等待,然后当市场变成卖方市场时抱怨"[1]。这反映出市场情绪的低迷,尽管短期而言现有条件对购房者极为有利。
Australian property buyers are adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach despite increasingly favorable conditions, with auction metrics hitting four-year lows [1]. The average number of bidders per auction has dropped below two, a significant decline from the typical three bidders seen through most of the previous year [1]. Similarly, the average number of people attending property viewings has fallen to approximately two, down from the previous range of three to four [1].
The hesitation reflects growing concerns about further price declines. The National Australia Bank (NAB) has revised its forecast, predicting a 5 percent drop in Australian capital city home prices this year—double its earlier 2 percent projection [1]. In Melbourne and Sydney specifically, the bank anticipates falls of around 10 percent [1]. These expectations are causing buyers to delay their purchasing decisions in hopes of capturing even lower prices. Auction clearance rates have remained persistently below 60 percent, falling short of the threshold typically considered balanced between buyer and seller markets [1].
Industry analyst Cate Bakos expressed frustration with the market psychology, stating: "Buyers have such good conditions, they can buy at a discount, they can have their conditions… they are so scaredy-cat. They sit on their hands, they wait, and then when the market becomes a seller's market they complain" [1].