气候科学家警告，随着超强厄尔尼诺现象的加强，2026年可能因人为全球变暖加速与厄尔尼诺共同作用而成为有记录以来最热的一年。[1]
目前2026年在全球最热年份中排名第三，但海洋温度表现异常。全球海洋日均表面温度从5月起与2024年持平，自6月以来几乎每天都创造历史新高。[1]约82%的世界海洋表面今年出现海洋热浪。[1]
科学家对2026年前景的预测差异明显。气候模型专家Hausfather计算2026年超过2024年成为最热年的概率为35%，这一概率相比3月份的7%大幅上升。[1]NASA前气候科学家James Hansen则直接预测2026年将超过2024年。[1]但美国国家海洋与大气管理局（NOAA）一个月前的预测显示，2026年成为最热年的概率仅0.1%，成为第四热年的概率为66%。[1]大多数预测显示厄尔尼诺将成为历史上最强的。[1]
科学家表示今年夏季的极端热浪由人为气候变化导致，不能归咎于厄尔尼诺。[1]
Climate scientists are raising alarm that 2026 may surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, driven by a combination of accelerated human-caused global warming and an exceptionally strong El Niño phenomenon.[1] While 2026 currently ranks as the third-hottest year, ocean temperatures have already reached record highs, and the planet has experienced widespread extreme heat waves and wildfires this summer.[1]
The probability of 2026 exceeding 2024's record has increased dramatically in recent months. Zeke Hausfather calculated the odds at 35 percent, a sharp rise from just 7 percent in March.[1] NASA's former climate scientist James Hansen has predicted that 2026 will indeed surpass 2024.[1] Global ocean surface temperatures have been matching 2024 levels since May and have set new daily records almost every day since June, with approximately 82 percent of the world's ocean surface experiencing marine heat waves this year.[1]
However, forecasts remain uncertain. A month ago, NOAA projected a 66 percent probability that 2026 would be the fourth-hottest year, with only a 0.1 percent chance of it becoming the hottest.[1] Most predictions anticipate that El Niño will develop into one of the strongest on record.[1] Scientists have attributed this summer's extreme heat waves to human-caused climate change rather than to El Niño alone.[1]