中国气象局最新发布的监测数据显示，2026年7月全国平均气温达23.5℃，较常年同期偏高1.3℃，为历史同期第二高[1]。其中，新疆、四川、重庆等地平均气温均创历史同期最高[1]。新疆艾丁湖景区站最高气温达50.2℃，为今年首个出现50℃以上的国家级气象站[1]。全国共有40个国家级气象站日最高气温达到或突破历史极值[1]，四川高温日数14.1天、重庆22.7天，均为历史同期最多[1]。
国家气候中心预测，强到超强厄尔尼诺事件将持续发展[1]。6月Niño3.4区海温指数达1.60℃，较5月上升0.64℃[1]。预计赤道中东太平洋海表温度将持续升高，秋冬季达到峰值，至2027年春夏季逐步衰减结束[1]。据此预测，8月中国暴雨、高温、台风将偏多，其中松辽、海河、珠江流域汛情较重[1]。
The China Meteorological Administration released monitoring data indicating that July 2026 saw China's average temperature reach 23.5°C, representing a 1.3°C increase above the historical average for the same period and marking the second-highest July temperature on record [1]. The extreme heat was particularly severe in certain regions, with Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Chongqing all recording their highest average temperatures for July in history [1]. The Aiding Lake scenic area station in Xinjiang registered a peak temperature of 50.2°C, making it the first national-level weather station to exceed 50°C this year [1].
The prolonged heat wave affected weather patterns across multiple areas [1]. Sichuan experienced 14.1 days of high temperatures, while Chongqing recorded 22.7 days, both representing the highest number of high-temperature days for July in their respective historical records [1]. In total, 40 national-level weather stations recorded daily maximum temperatures that either matched or surpassed their historical extremes [1].
The National Climate Center attributes the severe heat to ongoing strong to super-strong El Niño conditions [1]. The center reports that the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature index reached 1.60°C in June, up 0.64°C from May, and projects the equatorial central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures will continue rising, reaching peak levels in autumn and winter before gradually declining through spring and summer 2027 [1]. For August, the center forecasts above-normal high-temperature days nationwide, with heightened flood risks anticipated in the Songhua-Liaohe, Hai, and Pearl River basins [1].