伊朗末代沙阿之子、海外最知名反对派人物雷扎·帕列维的政治地位正面临严重挑战。[1]路透社在7月报道称帕列维的候选资格已"陷入停滞"，[1]美国高级官员已公开与美国支持帕列维上台的前景保持距离。[1]评论人士指出，帕列维过度依赖外国军事干预，且未能建立持久的政治联盟。[1]
帕列维近来调整了对外发声策略。[1]2026年1月，他告诉伊朗人国际社会已进入行动阶段，呼应美国总统特朗普"帮助即将到来"的信息。[1]不过评论人士认为他已从强调国际帮助转变为强调伊朗人民的作用。[1]
学术界对帕列维的可行性评估悲观。[1]研究者莫吉塔巴·纳贾菲指出西方政府从未将帕列维视为真正可行的选择，[1]波士顿大学研究员阿拉什·阿齐兹批评帕列维未能展示必要的政治技能。[1]与此同时，华盛顿内部立场存在分裂：共和党一些势力支持帕列维，另一派则倾向接受伊朗现状。[1]
Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last shah and the most prominent opposition figure in exile, appears to be losing political traction, according to a Reuters investigation published in July. [1] The inquiry found that Pahlavi's prospects for leading a post-regime transition have "stalled," while senior U.S. officials have publicly distanced themselves from the notion of American backing for his rise to power. [1]
Pahlavi's strategy has shifted noticeably in recent months. In January 2026, he told Iranians that the international community had entered an action phase, echoing President Trump's statement that "help is on the way." [1] Observers have noted that Pahlavi has since adjusted his messaging, moving away from emphasizing foreign military intervention and instead highlighting the role of the Iranian people themselves. [1] However, scholars remain divided on both the extent of his genuine support within Iran and his credibility among Western policymakers. [1] Researcher Mojtaba Najafi contends that Western governments have never viewed Pahlavi as a genuinely viable option, [1] while Boston University fellow Arash Azizi has criticized him for failing to demonstrate the necessary political acumen required for the role. [1]
The U.S. political establishment itself presents a mixed picture regarding Pahlavi's future. [1] Some Republican factions continue to support him, while others within Washington favor accepting Iran's current political system rather than pursuing regime change. [1]