在2026中国首席经济学家复旦管院科创论坛上，多位经济学家围绕中国经济结构分化现象进行了深入讨论。1殷剑峰表示AI技术是推动经济K型分化的关键变量。1同时，市场流动性正向新能源、半导体等硬科技产业转移。1
在产业层面，排名前二十的高景气行业主要集中在有色金属、电子产业链、家用电器及电力设备等领域，而房地产及传统制造业面临压力。1对于这种分化现象，经济学家们认为这是经济结构优化升级过程中的必然现象。张瑜指出经济转型伴随的K型分化是转型过程中的幸福的烦恼。1
展望后期，殷剑峰认为下半年财政政策力度将加大，全年经济有望呈V型走势并摆脱通缩。1对于应对策略，邵宇建议践行左手黄金、右手科技的哑铃型配置策略。1
At the 2026 China Chief Economists Forum hosted by Fudan University School of Management, economists highlighted artificial intelligence as the critical factor driving China's economic K-shaped divergence.1 The analysis revealed that high-performing industries are concentrated in non-ferrous metals, electronics supply chains, home appliances, and power equipment sectors.1 Conversely, real estate and traditional manufacturing face mounting pressure amid this structural shift.1
Economist Yin Jianfeng emphasized that AI technology represents the fundamental variable propelling this economic bifurcation.1 He predicted that fiscal policy intensity will strengthen in the latter half of the year, positioning the full-year economy to exhibit a V-shaped trajectory and escape deflationary pressures.1 Economist Zhang Yu characterized the K-shaped divergence accompanying economic transformation as the "pleasant worry" inherent to structural transitions.1 Market liquidity is redirecting toward hard technology sectors including new energy and semiconductors, according to Hung Hao's observation.1
To navigate these challenges, economist Shao Yu recommended implementing a barbell-shaped portfolio strategy combining gold on the left hand with technology on the right hand.1 Experts generally view this divergence as an inevitable phenomenon within the process of economic restructuring and upgrading, requiring proactive measures through industrial advancement and secondary distribution mechanisms.1
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