哈萨克斯坦议会选举巩固总统权力，平衡大国关系面临考验

哈萨克斯坦于8月23日举行议会选举，选民投票产生145名议员组成新的单院制议会12。执政党阿迪列特党获得70-72%的选票2，这一结果巩固了总统托卡耶夫的权力。此次选举在3月通过新宪法后进行，该宪法将原有的两院制议会改为单一制结构2。七个官方认可政党参选，而独立候选人在新制度下不再被允许参加竞选1。

新宪法于3月获得87%的投票支持2，并为总统权力重组奠定基础。根据宪法调整，73岁的托卡耶夫有资格在2029年参加另一个七年任期2。专家普遍认为这次改革进一步强化了总统权力，分析人士指出"议会将代表政权想要他们代表的东西"1。

作为资源丰富的内陆国家，哈萨克斯坦在俄罗斯、欧盟和中国之间寻求战略平衡1。2025年该国成为欧盟第二大石油供应国，占比12.8%，出口量达5580万吨1。专家认为哈萨克斯坦"不想过度依赖俄罗斯——它看到了俄罗斯在乌克兰的所作所为——也不想依赖中国"1，而欧盟因乌克兰战争对中亚采取更务实态度，关注资源和贸易路线1。

Kazakhstan held parliamentary elections on August 23, 2026, restructuring its legislature from a bicameral to a unicameral system with 145 seats.12 The governing Adilet Party secured 70-72 percent of the vote, cementing President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's authority.2 This electoral outcome follows a constitutional overhaul approved in March with 87 percent voter support, which fundamentally reshaped the country's political framework.2

The reforms reflect broader efforts to consolidate executive control while managing competing international interests. Seven officially recognized parties participated in the election, with independent candidates barred from running under the new system.12 President Tokayev, aged 73 and in office since 2019, becomes eligible under the revised constitution to seek another seven-year term in 2029.2 Experts assessed that the reformed parliament would largely represent positions favored by the regime, with one analyst noting that the legislature would "represent what the regime wants it to represent."1

Kazakhstan's resource wealth positions it as a critical player in regional geopolitical dynamics. In 2025, the country became the European Union's second-largest petroleum supplier, accounting for 12.8 percent of EU oil imports at 55.8 million tons.1 Amid Russia's actions in Ukraine, China's growing influence, and European interest in diversifying energy sources, Kazakhstan actively pursues equilibrium among these powers.1 One regional expert stated the nation "does not want to become overly dependent on Russia—it has witnessed Russia's conduct in Ukraine—nor does it wish to depend on China."1