高盛欧洲对冲基金业务负责人Mark Wilson近期发布周报指出，全球正处于有史以来最具资本饥渴性的投资周期[1]。这一周期由AI基础设施、再工业化、国防投资、供应链重建和主权债务融资需求同时推动[1]。Mark Wilson认为，美联储在此过程中更多是乘客而非司机[1]，收益率上行的根本驱动力源于结构性资本需求而非货币政策[1]。
在这一背景下，超大规模云计算企业展现出强劲增长势头。亚马逊管理层表示AI收入年化规模已超过250亿美元，同比增速达三位数[1]。该公司预计2026年资本开支达到2200亿美元，但仍然没有足够产能满足所有需求[1]，长期愿景将AWS定位为可能成为年收入1万亿美元的业务[1]。Alphabet、亚马逊和微软分别预测2027年至2028年的资本开支为3500亿至4150亿美元、3250亿至3660亿美元和2620亿至2840亿美元[1]。尽管7月市场波动剧烈且动量因子组合出现40%跌幅[1]，超越2000年科技泡沫破裂时的极端因子轮动记录[1]，但整体基本面仍然稳健[1]。
Goldman Sachs' head of European hedge fund business, Mark Wilson, has declared that the world is entering "the most capital-hungry investment cycle in history," driven simultaneously by AI infrastructure buildout, reindustrialization, defense spending, supply chain reconstruction, and sovereign debt financing needs.[1] In his weekly report, Wilson characterized the Federal Reserve's role in this dynamic as that of a passenger rather than a driver, arguing that the fundamental driver of rising yields is structural capital demand rather than monetary policy.[1]
The scale of projected capital commitments underscores this structural shift.[1] Alphabet forecasts capital expenditures of $350 billion in 2027 and $415 billion in 2028, while Amazon projects $325 billion and $366 billion respectively, and Microsoft plans $262 billion and $284 billion for the same periods.[1] Amazon's management disclosed that AI-related revenue has already exceeded $25 billion on an annualized basis with triple-digit year-over-year growth, yet the company emphasized that even its $220 billion capital expenditure budget for 2026 remains insufficient to meet all demand.[1] The company has articulated an extended vision in which AWS could eventually become a trillion-dollar annual revenue business.[1]
Market dynamics have reflected the intensity of this capital reallocation cycle. During July's volatile trading, momentum factor portfolios experienced a 40 percent decline—exceeding the extreme factor rotation witnessed during the March 2000 technology bubble collapse.[1] The world's two largest companies by market capitalization exhibited rare divergence on a single day, with Amazon surging 15 percent while Apple fell 10 percent.[1] Thirty-year Treasury yields have broken through pre-financial crisis levels, signaling the structural nature of the underlying capital demand.[1] Despite this market turbulence and significant factor dispersion, mega-cap cloud computing firms have simultaneously raised capital guidance while delivering robust earnings results, suggesting underlying business fundamentals remain sound.[1]
