澳大利亚首席经济学家Shane Oliver表示，持续30年推高房价的房产超级周期可能已经结束[1]。这一判断基于利率上升、房价可负担性创纪录低迷、移民放缓和政府税收政策调整等多重因素[1]。全国房产市场上月价值下跌0.9%，创2022年阿尔巴内塞政府上台以来最弱点[1]，其中悉尼房价下跌1.7%，墨尔本下跌1.4%[1]。
Oliver预期房价将进一步下跌7%至明年[1]。目前，悉尼房价比长期公平价值高41%，布里斯班高65%，墨尔本高25%[1]。KPMG首席经济学家Brendan Rynne预测2026年全国房价将下跌1.1%，随后在2027年反弹3.4%[1]。尽管面临近期调整压力，Rynne指出"虽然需求已减弱，但澳大利亚根本性的住房问题比以往任何时候都更强"[1]，暗示长期而言住房短缺可能支撑价格反弹。目前，悉尼、布里斯班、珀斯、阿德莱德和堪培拉的中位房价均仍在100万澳元以上[1]。财政部长Jim Chalmers表示，今年的价值下跌与过去20年发生的七次房产市场下跌相似[1]。
Australia's three-decade housing boom may be concluding, according to leading economist Shane Oliver, who attributes the turning point to rising interest rates, record-low housing affordability, slowing immigration, and shifting government tax policies [1]. The national property market declined 0.9 percent last month, marking its weakest performance since the Albanese government took office in 2022 [1]. Sydney experienced a steeper fall of 1.7 percent, while Melbourne dropped 1.4 percent [1].
Oliver anticipates further declines of approximately 7 percent through next year [1]. Current valuations suggest significant overvaluation across major markets, with Sydney properties trading 41 percent above their long-term fair value, Brisbane 65 percent higher, and Melbourne 25 percent above equilibrium [1]. Despite these headwinds, all five major cities—Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, and Canberra—maintain median property prices exceeding one million Australian dollars [1].
The forecast from KPMG Chief Economist Brendan Rynne projects a national price drop of 1.1 percent in 2026, followed by a recovery of 3.4 percent in 2027 [1]. Rynne stated that while demand has weakened, Australia faces an underlying housing shortage that is "stronger than at any point in the past" [1]. Treasurer Jim Chalmers characterized this year's value decline as comparable to seven previous property market downturns spanning the past two decades [1].