由技术大学慕尼黑和图兰大学联合进行的研究发现，全球人口密集的沿海地区面临地面沉降与海平面上升叠加的严峻挑战[1]。这些地区的居民相对海平面上升速度平均约为每年6毫米，接近全球沿海平均水平2.1毫米/年的三倍[1]。这一相对上升速度约为气候驱动绝对海平面上升速度（每年3.15毫米）的两倍[1]。
地面沉降由多种因素共同作用引发。地下水过度抽取、油气开采、城市建筑物的重量压迫以及沉积物压实等原因导致陆地下沉，从而显著放大了气候变化带来的海平面上升影响[1]。特定地区面临的威胁尤为严重：泰国、孟加拉国、尼日利亚、埃及、中国和印度尼西亚的人口加权沿海平均沉降速度为每年7至10毫米[1]。其中，雅加达地面沉降速度最高达每年13.7毫米，部分区域甚至达到每年42毫米；天津为每年13.5毫米；曼谷为每年8.5毫米；拉各斯为每年6.7毫米；亚历山大为每年4毫米[1]。
研究也指出了历史上的案例。东京曾经经历过每年超过10厘米的沉降，最严重地区年沉降约24厘米，但后来通过政府调控措施得到大幅改善[1]。该研究已于2026年8月2日发表在《自然通讯》期刊上[1]。
A new study reveals that densely populated coastal regions face a compounding crisis as land subsidence accelerates the effects of rising seas. Research by Munich Technical University and Turan University found that residents in these areas experience relative sea level rise averaging approximately 6 millimeters per year—nearly three times the global coastal average of 2.1 millimeters per year [1]. This accelerated rate results from the combination of climate-driven absolute sea level rise at 3.15 millimeters annually and significant land sinking, effectively doubling the relative threat facing vulnerable populations [1].
Multiple factors drive the subsidence in affected regions. Excessive groundwater extraction, oil and gas production, the weight of urban development, and sediment compaction all contribute to land sinking that amplifies the climate-driven sea level rise [1]. Several countries face particularly acute challenges: Thailand, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Egypt, China, and Indonesia experience population-weighted coastal averages of 7 to 10 millimeters per year [1]. Specific cities demonstrate even more severe subsidence rates—Jakarta sinks at 13.7 millimeters annually, Tianjin at 13.5 millimeters, Bangkok at 8.5 millimeters, Lagos at 6.7 millimeters, and Alexandria at 4 millimeters per year [1]. In Jakarta's most affected areas, subsidence reaches as high as 42 millimeters per year [1].
The research, published in Nature Communications on August 2, 2026, provides a sobering warning about the accelerating vulnerability of coastal cities worldwide [1]. Historical precedent offers some hope: Tokyo previously experienced subsidence exceeding 10 centimeters annually, with the most severely affected areas sinking about 24 centimeters per year, but government intervention significantly reduced these rates [1].