特斯拉在加州弗里蒙特工厂建设人形机器人Optimus的生产线，规划年产能达100万台，得克萨斯超级工厂的远期目标更是高达1000万台[1]。作为核心零部件供应商，国内谐波减速器龙头企业绿的谐波等公司面临这一庞大市场机遇，但同时也承受着马斯克频繁更改承诺所带来的不确定性[1]。
特斯拉对供应链提出了明确的产能要求[1]。企业需在9月达成每周1000台的产能目标，随后在年底前爬坡至每周2000至2500台，以实现年末10万台的供应链交付能力[1]。然而，Optimus的销售时间表多次变动，从2024年4月宣布的2025年底销售推迟至2026年下半年，目前的计划则是明年开始销售[1]。这种不确定性直接影响了供应商的投资决策——绿的谐波已将募投项目的竣工时间延期至2028年12月31日[1]。
绿的谐波在国内谐波减速器市场的占有率超过20%[1]，这一地位使其成为特斯拉不可或缺的合作伙伴。与此同时，整个人形机器人行业也在经历快速发展，摩根士丹利预计今年国内机器人出货量达5万台，这一预测在今年年内已经两度上调，从1月的1.4万台上升至5月的2.8万台[1]。产品价格方面，宇树人形机器人的单价从2023年的59.34万元大幅下降至2025年的16.64万元[1]，反映出行业竞争的日趋激烈。
Tesla is ramping up manufacturing preparations for its Optimus humanoid robot, with plans to produce 1 million units annually at its Fremont factory and targeting 10 million units at its Texas Gigafactory in the longer term [1]. The ambitious production roadmap has positioned domestic harmonic reducer makers, including industry leader Lv De Harmonic, as critical components suppliers, though execution uncertainty continues to dog the timeline.
The company has made aggressive demands on its supply chain, requiring partners to achieve weekly production capacity of 1,000 units by September and to scale to 2,000 to 2,500 units weekly by year-end, with total deliveries of 100,000 units expected by the end of the year [1]. However, Tesla's history of missed timelines has created hesitation among suppliers. Elon Musk initially stated in April 2024 that Optimus would begin selling in late 2025, then pushed the date to the second half of 2026, and most recently moved the launch target to next year [1].
This pattern of delays has prompted supply-side caution. Lv De Harmonic, which commands over 20 percent market share in China's harmonic reducer sector, has postponed the completion date of its fundraising-backed expansion project to December 31, 2028 [1]. The uncertainty reflects broader questions about humanoid robot adoption timelines, though Morgan Stanley revised its 2024 China robot shipment forecast upward from 14,000 units in January to 28,000 units by May, and competing manufacturers like Unitree have already sharply cut unit pricing from 593,400 yuan in 2023 to 166,400 yuan by 2025 [1].