埃隆·马斯克日前表示,五年内人工智能的智力总和将超越全人类[1],基于这一判断,他预言十年后货币将彻底失去价值[1]。马斯克认为,随着AI与机器人的协作发展,生产成本将大幅下降,商品和服务最终会多到不需要付费[1]。
这一观点立即引发经济学家和政治人物的强烈质疑。诺贝尔经济学奖得主达龙·阿西莫格鲁直言不讳地讽刺道,既然马斯克笃信2036年货币将毫无用处,不妨立即将其价值约一万亿美元的资产捐献出去[1]。对此,马斯克回应称自己"正有此意"[1]。然而政治人物伯尼·桑德斯随即指出这一承诺的可信度问题,指责马斯克连当下的财富税都极力反对,不太可能真的愿意捐赠自己的身家[1]。
经济学家彼得·厄尔从资源稀缺性角度反驳马斯克的论点[1],认为土地、时间和不确定性等资源永远具有稀缺性,因此必然需要货币来定价[1]。同时,经济学家戈皮纳特提出了逻辑上的矛盾:如果货币在2036年不再重要,那么这一万亿美元今天为什么还值钱[1]?
Elon Musk has forecast that currency will become obsolete within ten years, asserting that artificial intelligence and robotics will reduce production costs so dramatically that goods and services will be available for free in abundance [1]. Specifically, Musk predicted that within five years—around 2031—the combined intelligence of AI systems will surpass that of all humanity [1], and by 2036, money itself will lose its utility [1].
The prediction has drawn sharp criticism from economists and political figures who question both its logic and Musk's sincerity. Nobel Prize-winning economist Daron Acemoglu directly challenged Musk, suggesting that if he truly believes money will be worthless by 2036, he should immediately donate his approximately one trillion dollars [1]. Musk responded to this criticism by saying he intends to do so [1]. Other economists have raised more fundamental objections: Peter Earle argued that scarce resources such as land, time, and uncertainty will always require monetary valuation [1], while economist Gopinath questioned the contradiction inherent in Musk's position—if money becomes irrelevant in 2036, how can it command significant value today [1]. Senator Bernie Sanders added a political dimension to the debate, noting that Musk currently opposes wealth taxes, making his professed willingness to give away his fortune difficult to believe [1].