中国正在全面推进六大未来产业的发展。根据"十五五"规划，这六大产业方向包括量子科技、生物制造、氢能和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智慧和第六代移动通讯[1]。全国各地正在积极响应这一布局，其中31个省份提及发展氢能，29个省份提及生物制造，超过20个省份提及具身智慧[1]。大量资本随之涌入相关领域，仅脑机接口行业在2025年开年三个月的融资金额就已超过全年水平，而具身智慧行业在半年内吸引了超过900亿元人民币资金[1]。
然而，这一轮快速扩张中暴露出明显的问题。官媒《经济日报》发出警告，防止未来产业发展"一哄而上"[1]。以氢能为例，截至2025年6月底，中国建成投运的560座加氢站平均单站服务车辆仅43辆，多数加氢站和运营商处于亏损状态[1]，反映出产能过剩和低效投资问题。国家发展改革委产业经济与技术经济研究所研究员刘振中表示："颠覆性技术对未来产业的'推力'明显大于市场'拉力'"[1]，暗示当前投资缺乏市场需求支撑，存在重复建设风险。
Provinces and municipalities across China are racing to develop six strategic future industries, triggering official concern about irrational investment and duplication of effort.[1] The central government's "15th Five-Year Plan" has identified quantum technology, biological manufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communications as key growth areas.[1]
The enthusiasm for these sectors is widespread, with 31 provinces mentioning hydrogen energy development, 29 provinces proposing biological manufacturing initiatives, and more than 20 provinces pursuing embodied intelligence projects.[1] Capital has surged into these nascent fields—brain-computer interface enterprises alone secured funding exceeding the entire 2025 annual total within just the first three months of the year.[1] Over 900 billion yuan flowed into the embodied intelligence sector within a six-month period.[1] Yet this rapid expansion has created significant inefficiencies. China had commissioned 560 hydrogen refueling stations by the end of June 2025, but each station served an average of only 43 vehicles, with most operators reporting losses.[1]
The official Economic Daily newspaper has cautioned against rushing headlong into these industries without proper planning.[1] Liu Zhenzhong, a researcher at the National Development and Reform Commission's Institute of Industrial Economics and Technology Economics, attributed the mismatch to structural imbalance: "The 'push' from disruptive technologies on future industries is significantly stronger than the market 'pull.'"[1]