美国经济增长未达预期。二季度国内生产总值增速为1.5%，相比一季度的2.1%出现明显下滑[1]，这一表现不仅低于欧元区的1.8%，更远逊于加拿大的3.4%[1]。此结果与特朗普所承诺的5-6%增长率及经济"黄金时代"形成鲜明反差[1]。
通胀仍为经济增长的主要掣肘。个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数6月同比达3.7%，5月曾高达4.1%[1]，远高于美联储2%的目标，核心PCE通胀更是高达3.3%[1]。外部冲击加剧了物价压力：中东地缘冲突推高油价，7月中旬油价一度超过100美元/桶，目前维持在约84美元/桶[1]；相比战前，汽油价格上升约1美元/加仑，柴油上升约1.6美元/加仑[1]。
债市与就业表现同样令人担忧。10年期债券收益率升至4.74%，30年期更达5.27%，触及19年高位[1]；美国政府债务已接近40万亿美元[1]。与此同时，美国实际工资出现下降，制造业就业也在萎缩[1]，特朗普所承诺的外资制造业投资未见出现[1]。美联储主席凯文·沃什已取消利率指引[1]。
The U.S. economy is underperforming expectations as second-quarter GDP growth slowed to 1.5%, falling below the eurozone's 1.8% and Canada's 3.4% [1]. This deceleration from the first quarter's 2.1% growth rate starkly contrasts with President Trump's promised "golden age" of economic expansion [1].
Despite continued investment in artificial intelligence, declining oil and gas prices, and increased consumer spending among the wealthy, the economy remains sluggish [1]. Inflation remains stubbornly elevated, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index standing at 3.7% year-over-year in June, down from 4.1% in May but still far exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1]. Core PCE inflation persists at 3.3%, well above the central bank's goal [1]. Middle East tensions and escalating global trade conflicts have driven energy costs higher, putting further pressure on American growth [1].
Financial markets reflect mounting concerns about economic prospects. Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel in mid-July following renewed Middle East hostilities, before settling around $84 per barrel, while gasoline prices remain approximately $1 per gallon higher than pre-conflict levels and diesel costs about $1.60 per gallon higher [1]. Long-term Treasury yields have climbed to 19-year highs, with 10-year bonds yielding 4.74% and 30-year bonds at 5.27% [1]. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh has withdrawn forward guidance on interest rate policy [1].
The promised 5% to 6% growth rate has not materialized, and anticipated foreign investment in domestic manufacturing has failed to emerge [1]. Real wages for American workers are declining, and manufacturing employment is contracting [1]. With government debt now approaching $40 trillion, economic headwinds are intensifying [1].