全球建筑业正在以惊人的速度扩张。研究显示，全球每月建造相当于纽约市规模的城市1。在澳大利亚，这种增长势头同样强劲，现有约1.7亿平方米办公空间，预计至2049年再增1亿平方米1。
这一扩张带来严重的气候后果。澳大利亚办公楼建筑部门预计在2024年至2049年间释放1.38亿吨温室气体排放，相当于36个燃煤电站的年排放量1。这些排放已经超过了1.5°C和2.0°C气候路径限额的40%以上1。其中，具体化碳排放（建筑材料生产和建造过程中产生的排放）成为难以降低的瓶颈1，水泥制造占全球二氧化碳排放的8%1。
运营碳排放（建筑使用阶段的排放）有望从2024年的85%降至2049年的15%1。研究表明，通过采取混合策略——包括翻新现有建筑、建造更小或更少新建筑等措施——可减少超4700万吨排放1。悉尼的Quay Quarter Tower项目提供了一个范例，通过翻新保留三分之二的原有结构，节省了约8000吨具体化碳1。塔斯马尼亚是澳大利亚唯一年排放量持续低于1.5°C气候路径的州1。
Construction activity worldwide is expanding at an alarming rate, with new development equivalent to the size of New York City occurring every month 1. In Australia specifically, research reveals that the office building sector will generate 138 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions between 2024 and 2049 1, a volume comparable to the annual output of 36 coal-fired power stations 1.
The country currently maintains approximately 170 million square meters of office space, with projections indicating an additional 100 million square meters will be added by 2049 1. The carbon profile of these emissions is expected to shift significantly during this period, as operational carbon emissions are forecast to decline from 85 percent of total emissions in 2024 to just 15 percent by 2049 1. However, embodied carbon—the emissions generated during material production and construction—presents a more intractable challenge and will remain a dominant component of the sector's climate impact 1.
The cumulative emissions from Australia's office building sector already exceed the carbon budgets associated with both 1.5-degree Celsius and 2.0-degree Celsius climate pathways by more than 40 percent 1. Tasmania stands as the sole state where annual office building emissions consistently remain below the 1.5-degree pathway 1. Researchers propose that a mixed-strategy approach—encompassing renovation of existing structures, construction of smaller buildings, and reduced development volumes—could eliminate over 47 million tonnes of emissions 1. The retrofit of Sydney's Quay Quarter Tower demonstrated this potential by preserving two-thirds of its original structure, thereby avoiding approximately 8,000 tonnes of embodied carbon 1. Cement manufacturing alone accounts for 8 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions 1, underscoring the significance of building material choices in addressing climate goals.
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