独立分析师Ed Zitron发出警告，当前AI投资热潮可能建立在不可持续的"循环融资"模式之上[1]。根据其分析，科技巨头为AI初创公司提供资本和基础设施支持，这些公司随后以云服务消费的形式将资金返还给这些巨头，制造出虚假的市场需求[1]。
数据显示这一模式的风险程度令人担忧。谷歌云今年约27%的收入来自OpenAI和Anthropic，这一比例预计到2027年将攀升至48%以上，对应超过760亿美元的营收[1]。微软智能云部门2025年69%的同比增速实际上源自OpenAI一家公司的贡献，若剔除该因素，年增长率仅为8%[1]。OpenAI自身在2025年面临209亿美元的亏损，其中超过8亿美元收入来自软银的"Crystal Intelligence"项目[1]。
Zitron指出，这些主要AI公司普遍缺乏可持续的商业模式，整个投资链条风险高度集中[1]。未来几年全球规划建设的数据中心需要每年超过1.6万亿美元的收入才能支撑运营[1]。面对这些挑战，OpenAI原计划今年进行首次公开募股，但现已考虑将上市时间推迟至2027年[1]。Zitron直言："所有人都被卖了一个谎言，这说实话，几乎是一场丑闻"[1]。
Independent analyst Ed Zitron has raised alarm over the current artificial intelligence investment surge, characterizing it as an unsustainable scheme dependent on "circular financing" [1]. According to his analysis, major technology companies—Google, Microsoft, and Amazon—funnel capital and infrastructure to AI startups, which then return funds through cloud service consumption, artificially inflating demand [1]. Zitron contends that the entire investment chain conceals fundamental weaknesses: neither OpenAI nor Anthropic operates sustainably, as both companies continue reporting significant losses despite the apparent market enthusiasm [1].
The financial interdependencies reveal the concentration of risk within this ecosystem. Google Cloud derives approximately 27 percent of its current annual revenue from OpenAI and Anthropic combined, a figure projected to surge above 48 percent by 2027, corresponding to more than $76 billion in revenue [1]. Microsoft's intelligent cloud division achieved 69 percent year-over-year growth in 2025, yet this expansion stems almost entirely from OpenAI alone; excluding OpenAI, the division's annual growth rate drops to merely 8 percent [1]. OpenAI itself reported a $20.9 billion loss in 2025, with over $800 million in revenue derived from SoftBank's "Crystal Intelligence" project [1].
The model faces further strain from infrastructure demands. Supporting the data centers planned for construction globally over coming years would require annual revenue exceeding $1.6 trillion to sustain operations [1]. These circumstances have prompted strategic reassessment at the highest levels: OpenAI initially planned an initial public offering this year but is now considering postponing it until 2027 [1]. Zitron summarized his assessment starkly: "Everyone has been sold a lie, and frankly, it's almost a scandal" [1].
