澳大利亚One Nation党领导人Pauline Hanson提议将烟草税削减75%并冻结三年的税收指数化调整12。根据该政策，合法香烟价格将从目前的46.50澳元降至约21-22澳元12。Hanson声称这一举措旨在应对非法烟草贸易的激增，该贸易规模已从2018-19年的17.4亿澳元上升至2023-24年的超过64亿澳元1。
然而，该提议面临来自医疗和执法专家的广泛质疑。澳大利亚医学协会主席Danielle McMullen表示："没有绝对证据表明降低消费税会影响非法烟草"1。卫生部长Mark Butler指出，"政府通常不会与有组织犯罪进行价格竞争"2。澳大利亚控烟和卫生委员会首席执行官Laura Hunter警告，廉价香烟会对澳大利亚人的健康造成"巨大影响"1。
国际经验提供了警示。加拿大在1990年代实施类似税收削减，结果显示虽然非法烟草销量有所下降，但吸烟人数增加、戒烟率下降2。与此同时，2025年澳大利亚日常吸烟率已达到历史新低7.8%2，烟草相关疾病每年约导致24,000人死亡2。
迪肯大学犯罪学副教授James Martin认为烟草消费税上升是黑市增长的主要驱动因素1。值得注意的是，英美烟草公司在议会调查中支持削减烟草税2。
Australia's One Nation party, led by Pauline Hanson, has unveiled a proposal to slash tobacco excise tax by 75% and freeze tax indexation for three years, claiming the measure would drive down cigarette prices and curb the country's expanding black market 12. Under the plan, legal cigarettes would fall from approximately A$46.50 to around A$21–22 per pack 12.
The pitch comes as illicit tobacco trading has surged dramatically, with the black market value climbing from A$1.74 billion in 2018–19 to over A$6.4 billion in 2023–24 1. Meanwhile, tobacco excise revenue has contracted sharply from a 2020 peak of A$16.3 billion to A$7.8 billion in 2024–25 1. Proponents like James Martin, a criminology associate professor at Deakin University, contend that rising tobacco consumption taxes have been a primary driver of black market growth 1.
However, the proposal has drawn significant opposition from health authorities and government officials. Health Minister Mark Butler stated that "government typically does not compete on price with organized crime" 2. The Australian Medical Association president, Danielle McMullen, emphasized that "there is no absolute evidence that reducing excise tax would impact illicit tobacco" 1, while Laura Hunter, chief executive of the Australian Council on Smoking and Health, warned that cheaper cigarettes would pose a "massive impact" on public health 1. Evidence from Canada's tax reduction in the 1990s provides cautionary context: while illicit tobacco sales declined, smoking rates increased and quit-smoking rates fell 2. Australia's daily smoking rate reached a historic low of 7.8% in 2025 2, and tobacco-related diseases currently cause approximately 24,000 deaths annually in the country 2.
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