澳大利亚房产市场正经历自阿尔巴尼斯政府上台以来最深的衰退[1]。7月份，首都城市房产价值下跌0.9%，其中悉尼房价环比下跌1.7%至150万澳元以上，年初至今累计下跌5.9%；墨尔本房价环比下跌1.4%至93.6528万澳元，过去12个月下跌3.4%[1]。全国住宅中位值下跌0.7%至92.8421万澳元，这是自2022年末以来最大的单月跌幅[1]。房产市场低迷的现象还体现在高端房产上，过去3个月，最昂贵的20%房产累计下跌3.2%[1]。
房价快速下行的背后是多重因素共同作用。Cotality研究主管Gerard Burg指出，需求侧压力包括储备银行三次加息、各首都城市持续的高房价水平，以及5月预算中关于负扣税和资本利得税的政策变化[1]。同时，供应端也在对市场产生影响，AMP首席经济学家Shane Oliver提到过去12个月约有22万套住房获批建设[1]。市场信心指标也在恶化，拍卖成交率在过去两个月已跌至50%以下[1]。
Australia's residential property market is experiencing its deepest downturn since the Albanese government took office, driven by rising interest rates, elevated living costs, and property tax policy changes introduced in the May budget [1]. Capital city house values fell 0.9% in July, with Sydney recording a steeper decline of 1.7% to above A$1.5 million and Melbourne dropping 1.4% to A$936,528 [1]. The national median dwelling value fell 0.7% to A$928,421, marking the largest monthly contraction since the end of 2022 [1].
Sydney's prices have fallen 5.9% since the start of the year, while Melbourne has declined 3.4% over the past 12 months [1]. The most expensive 20% of properties have experienced the sharpest pullback, declining 3.2% over the past three months [1].
According to Cotality research director Gerard Burg, demand-side pressures stem from three Reserve Bank interest rate increases, elevated property prices across capital cities, and the May budget's changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax treatment [1]. Auction clearance rates have fallen below 50% over the past two months [1]. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver noted that approximately 220,000 dwelling units were approved for construction over the past 12 months [1].