波茨坦气候影响研究所的研究表明，全球变暖自2013年至2015年前后开始进入加速阶段[1]。研究人员分析了美国宇航局、美国国家海洋和大气管理局、HadCRUT、Berkeley Earth和ERA5五大全球温度数据集[1]，在排除厄尔尼诺、火山喷发、太阳周期等自然因素影响后发现，过去十年的全球升温速度约为每十年0.35℃，远高于1970年至2015年期间平均每十年0.2℃的升温速率[1]。该现象在五大数据集中均一致出现，统计确定性超过98%[1]。
根据这一加速趋势，全球气温可能在2030年前超过《巴黎协议》确定的1.5℃升温阈值[1]。研究论文已发表于《地球物理研究快报》2026年第53卷第5期[1]。波茨坦气候影响研究所的Stefan Rahmstorf指出："如果过去10年的升温速度继续下去，将导致在2030年前长期超过巴黎协议1.5℃限制"[1]。研究人员表示，虽然尚未确定加速的具体原因，但这一发现与气候模型的预测结果相符[1]。
Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research have identified a significant acceleration in the rate of global warming since around 2015.[1] Analysis of five major global temperature datasets reveals that the warming rate over the past decade has reached approximately 0.35°C per decade, substantially exceeding the average of 0.2°C per decade observed between 1970 and 2015.[1] The acceleration pattern emerged consistently across all five datasets—data from NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, and ERA5—beginning around 2013 to 2015, with statistical certainty exceeding 98 percent.[1]
The findings, published in Geophysical Research Letters in 2026, carry significant implications for global climate targets.[1] Stefan Rahmstorf stated that "if the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it will result in the long-term 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement being exceeded before 2030."[1] While the research does not pinpoint the specific causes driving this acceleration, the observed trend is consistent with predictions from climate models.[1]