南非非洲民族议会（ANC）因失业、贫困和基础设施恶化等问题正经历选民严重背离。即将于11月4日举行的地方选举中，该党支持率预计将进一步下滑至2024年创纪录低位40.2%以下 1。
社会动荡进一步加剧了政治困境。自4月以来针对外国人的暴力事件已导致多人死亡，超过17.6万人逃离南非 1。与此同时，总统西里尔·拉马福萨因涉及2020年其住所失窃58万美元案件的洗钱指控而面临压力，弹劫程序虽暂时中止，但已对其公众形象造成伤害 1。
在政治格局变化的背景下，反对党民主联盟等势力获得更多支持。前开普敦市长海伦·齐勒作为民主联盟候选人参选约翰内斯堡市长一职 1。政治分析师丹尼尔·西尔克评价道："我们正在见证始于2024年的南非政治持续转折点：这个前解放运动正在逐步瓦解。" 1
South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) is experiencing significant electoral headwinds as it confronts mounting public discontent over unemployment, poverty, and deteriorating infrastructure 1. The party's support is expected to decline further in upcoming local elections scheduled for November 4, falling below the 40.2 percent vote share it secured in 2024—already a historic low 1.
The political climate has been turbulent, with xenophobic violence claiming multiple lives since April, prompting over 176,000 people to flee the country 1. Additionally, President Cyril Ramaphosa has faced reputational damage following money laundering allegations connected to the 2020 theft of $580,000 from his residence, though impeachment proceedings against him have been temporarily halted 1. The opposition Democratic Alliance and other rival parties are positioned to capitalize on voter frustration, with former Cape Town Mayor Helen Zille running as the DA's mayoral candidate in Johannesburg 1. Political analyst Daniel Silke characterized the shift as part of a broader transformation: "We are witnessing a continuing turning point in South African politics that began in 2024: the gradual disintegration of the former liberation movement" 1.
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