一位分析人士通过历史经济数据比较，质疑将工业革命作为当代AI驱动增长参考的合理性。[1]该分析指出，前工业革命英国（1252-1652年）的长期复合年增长率约为0.07%，到1850年加速至1.02%，增幅约15倍。[1]在这一时期，年度增长率超过长期平均值10倍的年份占比约46%。[1]
相比之下，当代经济增长的波动性明显更小。[1]根据1950-2022年间的数据，全球所有国家中年度增长率超过19%的国家年份仅占0.76%。[1]美国更是从未在单一年份内实现19%的年度增长。[1]基于标准差分析，该分析人士认为，如果当代发达经济体经历与工业革命幅度相当的加速，增速应该会提升至约2.8%左右，[1]这远低于关于AI将带来10倍或更高增速的常见预期。[1]
A historical economic analysis challenges the comparison between Industrial Revolution growth patterns and contemporary projections of AI-driven expansion.[1] The researcher examined long-term growth data to test whether the explosive increases anticipated today find meaningful precedent in the industrial era.
Pre-industrial England (1252-1652) experienced a long-term compound annual growth rate of approximately 0.07 percent, which accelerated to 1.02 percent by 1850—a roughly 15-fold increase.[1] Notably, during this pre-industrial period, years in which growth exceeded ten times the long-term average occurred in approximately 46 percent of all years studied.[1] In stark contrast, analysis of global economic data from 1950 to 2022 reveals that only 0.76 percent of country-years recorded growth exceeding 19 percent.[1]
When adjusted for statistical volatility using standard deviation methodology, the author contends that an acceleration equivalent in magnitude to the Industrial Revolution would raise contemporary leading economies' growth rates to roughly 2.8 percent.[1] This projection stands substantially below the 10-fold or 20-percent-plus growth rates commonly cited in current discussions of transformative technological change.[1] The United States has never experienced 19 percent growth in any single year.[1]