OpenAI研究人员在2021年发表观点,主张人工智能技术将大幅降低商品和服务成本,进而引发社会经济格局的深刻变革[1]。作者认为,如果政策未能相应调整,这一技术进步可能导致大多数人生活水平反而下降[1]。
为应对这一挑战,作者提出"美国股权基金"方案,通过对公司市值征税2.5%(以股份形式)和私人土地征税2.5%(以现金形式),将财富直接分配给全体成年公民[1]。根据其预测,未来十年内美国公司市值将从50万亿美元至少翻倍,私人土地价值也将从30万亿美元翻倍[1]。即使考虑税收导致资产价值下跌15%的情形,十年后年均每位成年人可获得约13,500美元的分配[1]。
在实施路径上,作者建议以美国GDP增长50%作为全面启动该征税方案的条件,实现循序渐进的过渡而非一蹴而就[1]。这一方案的理论基础源自19世纪晚期经济学家亨利·乔治的土地价值税理论[1]。同时,作者预测AI在未来五年内将能阅读法律文件和提供医疗建议,十年内从事流水线工作[1]。
An OpenAI researcher has outlined an economic policy proposal aimed at addressing the societal challenges posed by artificial intelligence advancement.[1] The author argues that AI will substantially reduce the cost of goods and services within the coming decade, enabling the technology to handle tasks ranging from legal document review and medical advice provision within five years to assembly line work within ten years.[1] However, without adaptive policy measures, the author contends that most people's living standards will decline despite these technological gains.[1]
To counteract this outcome, the proposal introduces an "American Equity Fund" mechanism designed to distribute wealth directly to citizens.[1] The framework calls for a 2.5 percent tax on corporate market value, collected in the form of company shares, and a parallel 2.5 percent tax on private land value, collected in cash.[1] The author projects that over the next decade, U.S. corporate market value will at least double from $50 trillion and private land value will similarly double from $30 trillion.[1] Even accounting for a hypothetical 15 percent decline in asset values resulting from taxation, the proposal estimates that approximately 250 million American adults would each receive roughly $13,500 annually by the end of the decade.[1]
The plan recommends implementing this taxation regime progressively rather than immediately, using a 50 percent increase in GDP as the threshold for initiating comprehensive tax collection.[1] The proposal draws on economic theory dating to the late nineteenth century, specifically referencing Henry George's land value tax framework as intellectual foundation.[1]