中国气象局监测显示，太平洋上持续增强的厄尔尼诺气候现象或将成为150年来最强一次 [1]。赤道中东太平洋于5月达到厄尔尼诺状态标准，7月已进入强厄尔尼诺事件监测范围 [1]。预计本次事件至少持续到明年春季，整体持续时间接近历史上厄尔尼诺事件的平均长度——10至11个月 [1]。
强厄尔尼诺事件将通过改变大气环流型，放大高温、强降水等气候风险 [1]。国家气候中心首席预报员陈丽娟表示："强厄尔尼诺事件的次年，其对全球气候的影响往往达到顶峰" [1]。气象部门预测2027年成为新的全球最暖年份可能性较大 [1]，预计2026—2030年全球平均气温大概率将维持在历史高位或接近历史极值 [1]。此外，强厄尔尼诺事件将导致西北太平洋台风生成偏多、强度偏强，登陆我国的台风强度偏强 [1]。
China's Meteorological Administration has detected a progressively intensifying El Niño climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that could become the strongest observed in the past 150 years [1]. The equatorial central and eastern Pacific reached El Niño threshold conditions in May, and by July had entered the monitoring range for a strong El Niño event [1]. This occurrence is anticipated to persist at minimum through spring of the following year, with a total duration close to the historical average length of El Niño events—approximately 10 to 11 months [1].
The strengthening El Niño will reshape atmospheric circulation patterns and amplify climate risks including extreme heat and intense precipitation [1]. Global average temperatures from 2026 to 2030 are likely to remain at historical highs or near record extremes [1]. According to Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Center, "The year following a strong El Niño event typically experiences the peak influence on global climate" [1]. The phenomenon is expected to produce more frequent typhoon generation in the northwestern Pacific with increased intensity, resulting in typhoons making landfall in China with abnormally strong strength [1]. The year 2027 has a relatively high probability of becoming the next warmest year on record globally [1].