中国气象局监测显示，太平洋上持续增强的厄尔尼诺气候现象或将成为150年来最强一次 1。赤道中东太平洋于5月达到厄尔尼诺状态标准，7月已进入强厄尔尼诺事件监测范围 1。预计本次事件至少持续到明年春季，整体持续时间接近历史上厄尔尼诺事件的平均长度——10至11个月 1。
强厄尔尼诺事件将通过改变大气环流型，放大高温、强降水等气候风险 1。国家气候中心首席预报员陈丽娟表示："强厄尔尼诺事件的次年，其对全球气候的影响往往达到顶峰" 1。气象部门预测2027年成为新的全球最暖年份可能性较大 1，预计2026—2030年全球平均气温大概率将维持在历史高位或接近历史极值 1。此外，强厄尔尼诺事件将导致西北太平洋台风生成偏多、强度偏强，登陆我国的台风强度偏强 1。
China's Meteorological Administration has detected a progressively intensifying El Niño climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that could become the strongest observed in the past 150 years 1. The equatorial central and eastern Pacific reached El Niño threshold conditions in May, and by July had entered the monitoring range for a strong El Niño event 1. This occurrence is anticipated to persist at minimum through spring of the following year, with a total duration close to the historical average length of El Niño events—approximately 10 to 11 months 1.
The strengthening El Niño will reshape atmospheric circulation patterns and amplify climate risks including extreme heat and intense precipitation 1. Global average temperatures from 2026 to 2030 are likely to remain at historical highs or near record extremes 1. According to Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Center, "The year following a strong El Niño event typically experiences the peak influence on global climate" 1. The phenomenon is expected to produce more frequent typhoon generation in the northwestern Pacific with increased intensity, resulting in typhoons making landfall in China with abnormally strong strength 1. The year 2027 has a relatively high probability of becoming the next warmest year on record globally 1.
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