清华大学教授鞠建东近日分析指出，美国已将关税从传统贸易手段转变为政治工具1。自2025年4月以来，美国频频动用"关税大棒"1，通过"关税换承诺"的模式对盟友和非盟友同时施压，要求其做出单向让步1。
鞠建东认为，这种被称为"暴力再平衡"的政策源于美国国内的结构性问题1。美国面临储蓄不足、财政赤字和制造业外移等问题1，处于"旧全球化收益下降、国内政治要求重新分配、但新产业体系尚未形成"的过渡期1。然而，这种关税政策的实际效果与初衷存在落差1。虽然美国在"局部收割"和"规则施压"方面达到了部分预期1，但并未实现真正意义上的经济结构再平衡1。
关税政策带来的负面影响逐步显现1。受保护行业在短期内获得收益，但消费者、中小企业和低收入家庭则承担了更高的成本1。更广层面看，全球贸易成本上升、供应链碎片化加剧1，美国普通民众的长期受益十分有限1。
Ju Jiandong, an economist at Tsinghua University, has analyzed the tariff policies of the Trump administration, arguing that the United States has fundamentally shifted how it deploys trade barriers. 1 Since April 2025, the U.S. has increasingly wielded tariffs as a political instrument rather than a traditional trade remedy, employing what Ju describes as a "tariff-for-concessions" approach to pressure both allies and non-allies into making one-sided concessions. 1
This transformation reflects deeper structural imbalances within the American economy, including insufficient domestic savings, fiscal deficits, and the offshoring of manufacturing. 1 However, the strategy has failed to achieve genuine economic rebalancing, instead driving up global trade costs and fragmenting supply chains. 1 While protected industries have reaped short-term benefits, consumers, small and medium-sized enterprises, and low-income households have borne higher costs. 1 The global trade friction index has been severely disrupted since April 2025 as the U.S. pursues what Ju characterizes as "localized gains and rule-based pressure," achieving only partial policy objectives without fundamentally restructuring the economy. 1
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