世界气象组织在最新长期预报中警告，厄尔尼诺现象已经开始，并将在未来数月持续增强 [1]。该组织预计这一气候模式将从8月至10月进一步加剧，通常在11月至2月达到峰值 [1]。澳大利亚气象局在6月中旬正式宣布厄尔尼诺已启动，并预测这将成为"非常强的事件"，可能是1950年以来最强的事件之一 [1]。联合国秘书长古特雷斯表示："厄尔尼诺不仅在门口——它已经进入房子并升温" [1]。
厄尔尼诺现象将在全球范围内提高高温和干旱风险，对澳大利亚东部和东南部地区构成尤其严重的干旱和火灾威胁 [1]。消防专家警告，正的印度洋偶极子与厄尔尼诺相结合，加上可能的南半球环状模式负相位，可能导致类似2019-2020年"黑色夏日"的严重火灾季节 [1]。世界粮食计划署正在22个高风险国家寻求资源，以保护880万人免受这一气候模式升级为人道主义紧急情况 [1]。
The World Meteorological Organization warned on Saturday that El Niño is now underway and will continue to strengthen through August to October [1]. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology declared in mid-June that El Niño has already begun, forecasting it will be a "very strong event"—potentially one of the strongest since 1950 [1]. UN Secretary-General António Guterres characterized the situation starkly, stating: "El Niño is not only at the door—it has entered the house and is turning up the heat" [1].
The phenomenon poses significant humanitarian and environmental risks across multiple regions. The World Food Programme is seeking to protect 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries from the escalating weather pattern developing into humanitarian crises [1]. For Australia specifically, fire experts have warned that the combination of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole with El Niño, alongside a possible negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode, could produce a severe fire season comparable to the "Black Summer" of 2019–2020 [1]. El Niño typically reaches its peak between November and February [1], leaving a critical window of opportunity for preparedness in the months ahead.