世界气象组织在最新长期预报中警告，厄尔尼诺现象已经开始，并将在未来数月持续增强 1。该组织预计这一气候模式将从8月至10月进一步加剧，通常在11月至2月达到峰值 1。澳大利亚气象局在6月中旬正式宣布厄尔尼诺已启动，并预测这将成为"非常强的事件"，可能是1950年以来最强的事件之一 1。联合国秘书长古特雷斯表示："厄尔尼诺不仅在门口——它已经进入房子并升温" 1。
厄尔尼诺现象将在全球范围内提高高温和干旱风险，对澳大利亚东部和东南部地区构成尤其严重的干旱和火灾威胁 1。消防专家警告，正的印度洋偶极子与厄尔尼诺相结合，加上可能的南半球环状模式负相位，可能导致类似2019-2020年"黑色夏日"的严重火灾季节 1。世界粮食计划署正在22个高风险国家寻求资源，以保护880万人免受这一气候模式升级为人道主义紧急情况 1。
The World Meteorological Organization warned on Saturday that El Niño is now underway and will continue to strengthen through August to October 1. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology declared in mid-June that El Niño has already begun, forecasting it will be a "very strong event"—potentially one of the strongest since 1950 1. UN Secretary-General António Guterres characterized the situation starkly, stating: "El Niño is not only at the door—it has entered the house and is turning up the heat" 1.
The phenomenon poses significant humanitarian and environmental risks across multiple regions. The World Food Programme is seeking to protect 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries from the escalating weather pattern developing into humanitarian crises 1. For Australia specifically, fire experts have warned that the combination of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole with El Niño, alongside a possible negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode, could produce a severe fire season comparable to the "Black Summer" of 2019–2020 1. El Niño typically reaches its peak between November and February 1, leaving a critical window of opportunity for preparedness in the months ahead.
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