全球地缘政治格局正在发生深刻变化，传统大国对国际事务的掌控力正在衰退1。美国、俄罗斯和中国等强权国家面临日益复杂的挑战，非国家行为体、技术变革和资源竞争等多重因素正在重塑国际秩序1。
中东和欧洲地区的冲突案例充分反映了这一趋势。特朗普政府宣布哈马斯"完全解除武装"的承诺缺乏实际协议支持，引发国际社会对其可信度的质疑1。在核能合作上，特朗普先后宣布与沙特阿拉伯达成30年核电协议，随后因要求沙特签署《亚伯拉罕协议》而实质上搁置该协议1。澳大利亚前保障与不扩散办公室主任约翰·卡尔森指出该核协议损害了非扩散标准1。
乌克兰冲突展现出大国对地区局势的有限控制力。乌克兰直接攻击伊朗在里海的船舶，将伊朗与乌克兰冲突联系起来1。俄罗斯因乌克兰破坏其能源基础设施而被迫从印度进口石油1。与此同时，北约战机应对了俄罗斯导弹进入波兰领空事件1。
伊朗的动向表明中东国家正在采取更具战略性的自主立场。伊朗新一代领导层将"革命与治国分离"，采取实用主义和战略耐心的政策方向1。伊朗支持的什叶派政党在伊拉克选举中表现良好1。
The traditional dominance of major powers in international relations is waning, as conflicts across multiple regions reveal the limits of their influence and the complexity of modern geopolitics 1. Regional actors, non-state groups, and technological shifts are reshaping outcomes in ways that established powers can no longer fully control 1.
Recent developments illustrate this fragmentation. President Trump announced Hamas would be "completely disarmed," but the statement lacks supporting agreements, raising questions about its credibility 1. Meanwhile, Russia has turned to importing oil from India after Ukraine damaged its energy infrastructure, demonstrating how smaller adversaries can impose significant costs 1. Ukraine has directly attacked Iranian vessels in the Caspian Sea, effectively drawing Iran into the conflict 1. In another incident, NATO fighter jets responded after Russian missiles entered Polish airspace 1. The Trump administration initially announced a 30-year nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia, only to effectively shelve it when the kingdom resisted demands to sign the Abraham Accords 1. John Carlson, Australia's former head of security and non-proliferation, argued that the nuclear deal undermined non-proliferation standards 1.
Iran's new leadership has adopted a more pragmatic approach, separating "revolution from governance" and pursuing strategic patience and realism 1. This shift appears reflected in the strong performance of Shia political parties backed by Iran in Iraq's elections held in November 2025 1. These trends suggest that the international order is increasingly shaped by localized interests and tactical calculations rather than directives from Washington, Moscow, or Beijing 1.
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