伊朗战争导致的霍尔木兹海峡封锁已持续六个月，成为本世纪最大的油价冲击事件[1]。布伦特原油价格从去年12月的约62美元/桶飙升至5月的近104美元/桶峰值，之后虽有回落但仍维持在70多美元[1]。这场能源危机已深入澳大利亚消费者的日常生活，推高了从咖啡到通勤的各类开支。
澳大利亚主要零售商迅速将成本压力转嫁给消费者。澳洲两大超市Coles和Woolworths在4月同时上调家庭品牌牛奶价格最高12%[1]。自2月以来，牛奶价格上升6.17%，面包上升1%，奶酪上升2.2%[1]。打车服务同样未能幸免——Uber和Didi在3月油价冲击初期提高费用，随后价格保持高位未见下调[1]。澳大利亚央行行长Michele Bullock指出，5月通胀率为4%，预计2026年将降至3.8%（年率）[1]。
经济学家对前景感到担忧。Oxford Economics分析师Harry Murphy Cruise表示，油价冲击风险正在转变为更广泛且持久的通胀问题[1]。此外，澳大利亚政府的燃油税减免措施也在逐步取消——7月已恢复一半税收，减免将在8月2日完全取消[1]，这意味着消费者面临的成本压力可能继续向上传导。
The ongoing conflict in Iran has triggered a six-month blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with no sign of resolution, disrupting global energy supplies and creating significant ripple effects across Australian households [1]. Brent crude oil surged from approximately $62 per barrel in December to a peak of nearly $104 per barrel in May before retreating to the $70s range, marking what economists describe as the most significant oil shock of this century [1].
The price pressures are now visible in supermarket aisles and ride-sharing apps. Australia's major retailers Coles and Woolworths simultaneously raised their home-brand milk prices by up to 12 percent in April [1]. Since February, milk prices have climbed 6.17 percent, bread 1 percent, and cheese 2.2 percent [1]. Ride-sharing services Uber and Didi increased fares in March as oil prices surged but have not reduced them despite the subsequent pullback in crude costs [1].
Complicating the outlook, the government's fuel tax relief will be completely eliminated on August 2, after a partial restoration of taxes in July [1]. Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock projects the inflation rate will reach 3.8 percent annually by 2026, though it stood at 4 percent as of May [1]. Oxford Economics analyst Harry Murphy Cruise warned that the oil price shock risks evolving into a broader, more persistent inflation problem affecting the wider economy [1].