伊朗战争导致的霍尔木兹海峡封锁已持续六个月，成为本世纪最大的油价冲击事件1。布伦特原油价格从去年12月的约62美元/桶飙升至5月的近104美元/桶峰值，之后虽有回落但仍维持在70多美元1。这场能源危机已深入澳大利亚消费者的日常生活，推高了从咖啡到通勤的各类开支。
澳大利亚主要零售商迅速将成本压力转嫁给消费者。澳洲两大超市Coles和Woolworths在4月同时上调家庭品牌牛奶价格最高12%1。自2月以来，牛奶价格上升6.17%，面包上升1%，奶酪上升2.2%1。打车服务同样未能幸免——Uber和Didi在3月油价冲击初期提高费用，随后价格保持高位未见下调1。澳大利亚央行行长Michele Bullock指出，5月通胀率为4%，预计2026年将降至3.8%（年率）1。
经济学家对前景感到担忧。Oxford Economics分析师Harry Murphy Cruise表示，油价冲击风险正在转变为更广泛且持久的通胀问题1。此外，澳大利亚政府的燃油税减免措施也在逐步取消——7月已恢复一半税收，减免将在8月2日完全取消1，这意味着消费者面临的成本压力可能继续向上传导。
The ongoing conflict in Iran has triggered a six-month blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with no sign of resolution, disrupting global energy supplies and creating significant ripple effects across Australian households 1. Brent crude oil surged from approximately $62 per barrel in December to a peak of nearly $104 per barrel in May before retreating to the $70s range, marking what economists describe as the most significant oil shock of this century 1.
The price pressures are now visible in supermarket aisles and ride-sharing apps. Australia's major retailers Coles and Woolworths simultaneously raised their home-brand milk prices by up to 12 percent in April 1. Since February, milk prices have climbed 6.17 percent, bread 1 percent, and cheese 2.2 percent 1. Ride-sharing services Uber and Didi increased fares in March as oil prices surged but have not reduced them despite the subsequent pullback in crude costs 1.
Complicating the outlook, the government's fuel tax relief will be completely eliminated on August 2, after a partial restoration of taxes in July 1. Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock projects the inflation rate will reach 3.8 percent annually by 2026, though it stood at 4 percent as of May 1. Oxford Economics analyst Harry Murphy Cruise warned that the oil price shock risks evolving into a broader, more persistent inflation problem affecting the wider economy 1.
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