联合国和气象部门发出警告，正在增强的厄尔尼诺现象将引发全球范围内更为极端的天气灾害。[1][2]世界气象组织指出，这一厄尔尼诺系统将从8月至10月加强，预计秋季晚期达到峰值，持续影响至2027年春季。[2]太平洋关键观测区域在厄尔尼诺形成后第15周达到有记录以来最高温度，[2]全球多地气温可能较正常值高出2.9摄氏度。[1]
印度季风面临特别威胁，东印度洋盆地降雨将低于正常水平，[1]这可能引发干旱、洪水和野火风险。[1]世界气象组织警告，印度尼西亚、印度等亚洲地区，澳大利亚南部及东部，南美洲部分地区和非洲南部地区均面临干旱和野火风险，[2]此外赤道非洲西部、北美等地也处于干旱威胁之下。[1]
世界气象组织秘书长塞莱斯特·绍洛表示："这个厄尔尼诺是在前所未有的海洋热浪和上升温度的背景下发展的。"[1]联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯警告称，"太平洋水温在厄尔尼诺初期从未这么热过，温度仍在上升，"[1]并指出"这是历史未曾有过的时刻。气候危机已全速运转。"[2]哥伦比亚大学气候科学家Jeffrey Shaman表示，"一年后，北半球会非常炎热，我们可能会经历全球从未体验过的夏季。"[2]
The World Meteorological Organization and United Nations have issued urgent warnings about an intensifying El Niño phenomenon that is already breaking historical records and poses unprecedented threats to global climate patterns. The El Niño system reached record-high temperatures in the key Pacific region just 15 weeks after formation, marking the strongest early-stage development in recorded history [2]. Scientists predict global temperatures could exceed normal levels by 2.9 degrees Celsius as the phenomenon strengthens from August through October [1], with peak intensity expected in late autumn and effects persisting until spring 2027 [2].
The consequences of this El Niño event extend across multiple continents and sectors. India's monsoon faces particular vulnerability, with rainfall expected to fall below normal levels in the eastern Indian Ocean basin [1]. Drought and wildfire risks threaten Indonesia, India and other Asian regions, southern and eastern Australia, parts of South America, southern Africa, equatorial West Africa, and North America [1][2]. Scientists at Columbia University project that the Northern Hemisphere could experience unprecedented summer temperatures within a year [2], while over the past two decades, 17 of the world's 23 largest garment manufacturing centers have seen dangerous heat days increase by more than 10 percent [2].
UN Secretary-General António Guterres characterized the moment as historically unique, stating that "the climate crisis is running at full speed" [2]. World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that "this El Niño is developing against an unprecedented backdrop of marine heat waves and rising temperatures" [1]. The convergence of El Niño with already elevated ocean temperatures represents a particularly acute threat to global stability and human welfare.