Leopold Aschenbrenner掌管的Situational Awareness基金在短短六天内从看好市场前景转向被迫清仓，遭遇惨重损失。[1]基金在7月24日发出信函表示"现在或许是一个加仓的好时机"，[1]但仅到7月30日就因杠杆压力而清仓了全部美股持仓。[1]这次清仓导致基金总亏损约200亿美元，折合人民币约1400亿元。[1]
基金规模的急速膨胀与随之而来的风险积聚成为这场灾难的根源。[1]Situational Awareness基金在不到两年时间内从成立时的2亿美元激增至240亿美元，[1]其中Leopold使用了约4倍杠杆进行投资。[1]基金主要押注AI基础设施领域，最大单一持仓是Anthropic，约占基金资产五分之一。[1]当科技股大幅下跌时，基金面临保证金追缴压力而无法自救。[1]SanDisk成为最大的失血股，全月跌幅约46%。[1]
Leopold Aschenbrenner的投资经历也引发关注。[1]他曾在2024年4月因提交安全备忘录被OpenAI以泄密为由开除，[1]随后于6月发布长达165页的文章，预测通用人工智能（AGI）将在2027年前后到来。[1]
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund was forced to liquidate its entire US stock holdings on July 30, incurring a total loss of approximately $200 billion [1]. The fund, which had grown from an initial $200 million to $240 billion in under two years, faced severe margin pressure following sharp declines in technology stocks [1].
Just six days before the liquidation, Aschenbrenner had signaled optimism in a letter to investors on July 24, suggesting that current market conditions presented "perhaps a good opportunity to add positions" [1]. However, mounting margin calls triggered by the tech sector downturn left the fund unable to sustain its roughly four-fold leverage [1]. SanDisk, a major holding, fell approximately 46 percent over the month [1]. The liquidation wiped out roughly two-thirds of the fund's total assets [1].
The Situational Awareness fund had concentrated its strategy heavily on AI infrastructure investments, with Anthropic alone representing approximately one-fifth of total fund assets [1]. Prior to the collapse, the fund's top five holdings consisted entirely of put options with a nominal value of several billion dollars [1]. Aschenbrenner was dismissed from OpenAI in April 2024 following disclosure of an internal safety memorandum, and had published a 165-page forecast in June predicting the arrival of artificial general intelligence by approximately 2027 [1].