30年国债近一周行情强劲，超长债利率创年内新低[1]。部分地区农商行的存款利率调整引发市场连锁反应，30年期与10年期国债利差收窄至46BP左右[1]，突破了4月以来的低点[1]。
在本轮行情中，机构投资者成为主要推动力量。从7月20日至24日的现券净买入数据看，券商和基金分别净买入30年国债578亿元与407亿元[1]。与此同时，过去一周30年国债ETF出现贴水折价现象，资金随之从ETF向现券迁移[1]。截至7月19日，最近三周理财规模增加8386亿元[1]。
市场人士预计，若权益市场保持在3800点附近的稳定水平，30年期与10年期国债利差的中枢有望向35-40BP区间系统性压缩[1]。
Ultra-long duration Chinese government bonds have gained significant momentum over the past week, with yields on 30-year debt reaching their lowest levels this year.[1] The spread between 30-year and 10-year yields has compressed to approximately 46 basis points, breaking through the low point established since April.[1] This compression was partly triggered when multiple city and rural commercial banks across Zhejiang reduced their fixed-term deposit rates by 5 to 10 basis points on July 21 and 22.[1]
Market participants have driven the rally, with securities firms and fund managers becoming the primary buyers in this round of trading activity.[1] From July 20 to 24, securities firms made net purchases of 57.8 billion yuan in 30-year government bonds, while fund managers added 40.7 billion yuan.[1] Simultaneously, capital has migrated from 30-year government bond exchange-traded funds toward cash bonds over the past week, creating arbitrage opportunities as ETF discounts emerged.[1] Financial wealth management products have also seen substantial inflows, with their combined scale increasing by 83.86 billion yuan over the most recent three-week period ending July 19.[1]
Looking ahead, the 30-year to 10-year spread is expected to compress systematically toward the 35-40 basis point range, provided that equity markets stabilize around the 3,800-point level.[1]