30年国债持续走强 资金从ETF向现券迁移

30年国债近一周行情强劲，超长债利率创年内新低1。部分地区农商行的存款利率调整引发市场连锁反应，30年期与10年期国债利差收窄至46BP左右1，突破了4月以来的低点1。

在本轮行情中，机构投资者成为主要推动力量。从7月20日至24日的现券净买入数据看，券商和基金分别净买入30年国债578亿元与407亿元1。与此同时，过去一周30年国债ETF出现贴水折价现象，资金随之从ETF向现券迁移1。截至7月19日，最近三周理财规模增加8386亿元1。

市场人士预计，若权益市场保持在3800点附近的稳定水平，30年期与10年期国债利差的中枢有望向35-40BP区间系统性压缩1。

Ultra-long duration Chinese government bonds have gained significant momentum over the past week, with yields on 30-year debt reaching their lowest levels this year.1 The spread between 30-year and 10-year yields has compressed to approximately 46 basis points, breaking through the low point established since April.1 This compression was partly triggered when multiple city and rural commercial banks across Zhejiang reduced their fixed-term deposit rates by 5 to 10 basis points on July 21 and 22.1

Market participants have driven the rally, with securities firms and fund managers becoming the primary buyers in this round of trading activity.1 From July 20 to 24, securities firms made net purchases of 57.8 billion yuan in 30-year government bonds, while fund managers added 40.7 billion yuan.1 Simultaneously, capital has migrated from 30-year government bond exchange-traded funds toward cash bonds over the past week, creating arbitrage opportunities as ETF discounts emerged.1 Financial wealth management products have also seen substantial inflows, with their combined scale increasing by 83.86 billion yuan over the most recent three-week period ending July 19.1

Looking ahead, the 30-year to 10-year spread is expected to compress systematically toward the 35-40 basis point range, provided that equity markets stabilize around the 3,800-point level.1