两项新研究表明，人为气候变化显著增加了西班牙和法国近期极端野火事件发生的可能性。[1]世界气象归因组织的快速分析指出，气候变化使西班牙创纪录野火所需的炎热干燥条件出现概率增加了20倍，使法国类似极端火灾条件的概率翻倍。[1]同期发表的另一项研究发现，过去26年的升温进程中，西班牙严重火灾风险的概率增加了三倍，法国则增加了40%。[1]
气候变暖对南欧火灾天气的影响已成倍增长。[1]该地区达到极端火灾易发水平的天数从早期每年约10天增加到现在的每年约25天，且这些极端火灾天气日的强度比1981年至2010年期间的火灾天气日高约50%。[1]研究对比了现有火灾天气严重程度与地球比前工业时代温暖2.5度时的情况。[1]
帝国理工学院气候科学家弗里德里克·奥托表示："我们需要停止燃烧化石燃料。只要我们继续燃烧化石燃料，全球气温就会上升。"[1]
Two new studies have quantified the dramatic influence of human-caused climate change on this week's extreme wildfire conditions across Spain and France. A rapid analysis by the World Weather Attribution organization determined that climate change increased the likelihood of the hot, dry conditions behind Spain's record-breaking wildfires by a factor of 20, while doubling the probability of extreme fire conditions in France.[1]
A companion study published simultaneously found that Southern Europe now experiences more than twice as many days conducive to extreme fire weather compared to decades past.[1] Specifically, the number of extreme fire-weather days in the region has risen from approximately 10 annually in earlier periods to around 25 days per year currently, with these extreme conditions now measuring roughly 50 percent more intense than fire-weather days during the 1981-2010 baseline period.[1] Over the past 26 years, warming has tripled the probability of severe fire risk in Spain and increased France's severe fire risk probability by 40 percent.[1]
Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, emphasized the imperative for action: "We need to stop burning fossil fuels. As long as we continue burning fossil fuels, global temperatures will keep rising."[1]