创纪录强度的厄尔尼诺现象正在太平洋加速增强，预计将在2026年晚春达到峰值。[1]根据最新数据，Niño 3.4指数已从年初的-1℃上升至接近+2℃，是1900年以来发展最快的厄尔尼诺事件。[1]预测该指数将在晚春升至约+3.5℃，超越历史最高值+2.65℃，有望成为现代历史上最强的厄尔尼诺事件。[1]
澳大利亚面临严峻天气挑战。[1]南方涛动指数（SOI）已降至近-30，达到40多年来最低水平。[1]澳大利亚气象局预报显示，春季平均气温可能比1961-1990基线高约2℃，预示着澳大利亚春季气温或将创历史新高。[1]同时，8月至10月东部地区降雨可能低于平均水平，这将加剧干旱和火灾风险。[1]这次厄尔尼诺现象已在欧洲和北美引发极端热浪和火灾。[1]
A record-strength El Niño event is rapidly intensifying across the Pacific and is forecast to reach its peak in late spring 2026, potentially becoming the strongest El Niño episode in modern history [1]. The Niño 3.4 index has climbed from minus 1 degree Celsius at the start of the year to nearly plus 2 degrees Celsius, marking the fastest developing El Niño since 1900 [1]. Predictions indicate the index will rise to approximately plus 3.5 degrees Celsius by late spring, surpassing the historical maximum of plus 2.65 degrees Celsius [1].
Australia faces significant climate impacts from this intensifying pattern. The Southern Oscillation Index has already fallen to nearly minus 30, the lowest level in over 40 years [1]. Spring temperatures across the country are predicted to run approximately 2 degrees Celsius above the 1961-1990 baseline, potentially setting a new record for the season [1]. The Bureau of Meteorology's latest seasonal forecast indicates rainfall across eastern regions from August through October may fall below average levels [1]. The current El Niño development follows 2024, which was recorded as the hottest year on Earth, a period that coincided with the conclusion of the previous El Niño cycle [1].