SpaceX Falcon 9火箭的上面级（编号2025-010D）将于2026年8月5日撞击月球[1]。撞击预计发生在世界协调时06:34:32，误差范围在几秒内[1]。撞击地点位于月球北纬19.455°、西经93.594°附近，靠近爱因斯坦环形山[1]。
该上面级质量约4900公斤，已在地球轨道运行一年多，迄今被观测1053次[1]。根据计算，上面级撞击时的速度将达到2430米/秒，产生的能量约为145亿焦耳，预计撞击会形成约17米直径的撞击坑[1]。这枚上面级于2025年1月15日随SpaceX Falcon 9火箭发射升空，当时执行的任务是发射Blue Ghost和Hakuto-R月球着陆器[1]。
由于太阳辐射压等因素的不完全可预测性，最终撞击位置和时间可能存在数秒和数公里的误差[1]。
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket upper stage will strike the lunar surface on August 5, 2026, at approximately 06:34:32 UTC, according to orbital tracking data [1]. The upper stage, designated 2025-010D, will impact near coordinates 19.455° North latitude and 93.594° West longitude, in the vicinity of Einstein crater [1]. The collision is anticipated to create an impact crater approximately 17 meters in diameter [1].
The upper stage, which has a mass of roughly 4,900 kilograms, was launched on January 15, 2025, as part of a mission to deliver the Blue Ghost and Hakuto-R lunar landers to orbit [1]. It has remained in Earth orbit for over a year and has been observed 1,053 times as of February 26, 2026 [1]. At the moment of impact, the stage will be traveling at 2,430 meters per second, or approximately 2.43 kilometers per second [1]. The collision will release approximately 14.5 billion joules of energy [1].
Predictions regarding the exact timing and location of impact carry some uncertainty, with potential variations of several seconds in time and several kilometers in position due to unpredictable factors such as solar radiation pressure [1].