全球主要钻石生产商正面临市场巨变。Rio Tinto在加拿大运营23年的Diavik钻石矿于3月停产[1]，De Beers随即宣布其南非旗舰矿Venetia将暂停两年生产[1]。与此同时，De Beers的母公司Anglo American正在洽谈以约10亿美元出售其持有的De Beers 85%股权[1]——这一估值相比该公司2001年私有化时的18亿美元大幅缩水。De Beers第一季度粗钻石价格下跌19%[1]，反映出市场需求的急剧萎缩。
人造钻石的快速渗透是压低天然钻石需求的主要推手。根据美国婚礼策划品牌The Knot对逾万名美国新婚夫妇的调查，2025年选择人造钻石作为婚戒中心石的比例达到61%[1]。人造钻石与天然钻石在化学和物理性质上基本相同，难以区分[1]，这使得消费者愈发倾向选择成本更低的替代品。这一转变对依赖钻石出口的国家造成压力——钻石出口占博茨瓦纳总出口的约80%，且占其政府收入的约三分之一[1]。
The natural diamond mining sector is experiencing unprecedented disruption as major producers retreat from operations. Rio Tinto ended production at its Diavik diamond mine in Canada after 23 years of operation in March [1], while De Beers announced a two-year production suspension at its flagship Venetia mine in South Africa [1]. The pressure intensifies as Anglo American, De Beers' parent company, negotiates the sale of an 85% stake in the company for approximately US$1 billion—a stark contrast to the US$18 billion valuation when De Beers was taken private in 2001 [1]. These asset sales and closures reflect a fundamental market shift driven by the rising adoption of lab-grown alternatives.
Consumer preference is rapidly shifting toward lab-grown diamonds, challenging demand for natural stones. In 2025, 61% of newly married American couples selected lab-grown diamonds for their engagement ring center stones, according to a survey of over 10,000 couples by wedding planning brand The Knot [1]. This trend directly pressures prices for natural diamonds; De Beers' average rough diamond prices in the first quarter fell 19% [1]. Lab-grown diamonds possess virtually identical chemical and physical properties to natural diamonds, making them difficult to distinguish [1], which has eliminated a key differentiation advantage for mined stones.
The industry upheaval carries significant geopolitical implications. Diamonds represent approximately 80% of Botswana's exports and roughly one-third of government revenue [1], making the sector's contraction a concern for economies dependent on natural diamond production.
